Union Pacific
2026-10-20T08:37:58.478253+00:00
Shortcut
3.50Shortcut normalized EPS
+1.0% vs Street
Street
3.47Street normalized EPS
Frozen October 18 snapshot
Real
3.53Issuer adjusted diluted EPS
Shortcut win
Model download
Explore the assumptions and calculations behind the forecast.
Shortcut’s reasoning.
The volume, pricing and expense build forecasts $7.17bn in revenue and adjusted diluted EPS of $3.50 versus the Street’s $3.47.
Adjusted net income is approximately $2.082bn. Land-sale normalization and historical share sourcing retain disclosed limitations; additional EBITDA and guidance comparisons use the workbook’s stated definitions.
On the record.
- Reporting basis
- Normalized (issuer 'adjusted') diluted EPS per common share, USD — excludes acquisition-related (Norfolk Southern merger) costs and other issuer-identified items; matches CapIQ normalized history
- Forecast completed
- 2026-10-20T03:38:04.540109+00:00
- Published
- 2026-10-20T08:37:58.478253+00:00
Model assumptions and review notes
- Traffic mix, intermodal growth and fuel/pricing assumptions remain the original judgments. The quarter-to-date volume source has a column-orientation ambiguity; no hindsight replacement was made.
- Annual versus quarterly adjusted-income bridges include a historical land-sale/merger-cost difference. FY24 weighted shares are not independently source-verified in the final review; ancillary annual growth has a rounding-basis limitation.
- Tracked EBITDA uses the model definition, not an established issuer Adjusted EBITDA reconciliation. Guidance EPS phasing is derived rather than directly guided. A few status-column spacing and contextual-header limits remain.
Research sources
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/100885/000010088525000320/a2025-10x238xkex991earning.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/100885/000010088526000032/a2026-01x278xkex991earning.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/100885/000010088526000154/a2026-04x238xkex991earning.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/100885/000010088526000249/a2026-07x238xkex991earning.htm
- https://news.alphastreet.com/union-pacific-corporation-unp-q2-2026-earnings-call-transcript/
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/100885/000010088525000321/unp-20250930.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/100885/000010088526000250/unp-20260630.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/100885/000010088526000037/unp-20251231.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/100885/000010088526000155/unp-20260331.htm
- https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/union-pacific-at-morgan-stanley-laguna-conference-growth-fuel-and-merger-93CH-4904202
- https://quartr.com/events/union-pacific-corporation-unp-morgan-stanley-s-14th-annual-laguna-conference_3YxjkepK
- https://investor.unionpacific.com/static-files/d37d11eb-adb2-450a-9b8b-f78708425034
- https://investor.unionpacific.com/static-files/d0993c32-4b73-4285-bc8f-06a3f7f7e312
- https://investor.unionpacific.com/static-files/bf90c770-972b-428d-9e9d-1b9cf111800a
- https://investor.unionpacific.com/static-files/85443ec4-228c-432e-b9c3-b2fbeab055a4
- https://www.up.com/shipping/surcharge/mileage
- https://www.up.com/press-releases/financial/3q26-dividend-increase-260729
- https://www.finhacker.cz/en/stocks/union-pacific-market-cap/
- https://topforeignstocks.com/indices/components-of-the-sp-500-index/
- https://investor.unionpacific.com/static-files/5b14d790-f364-4d37-b617-21468f13fbe6
- https://www.up.com/press-releases/financial/3q26-earnings-date-261015
- https://seekingalpha.com/news/4650322-ubs-trims-profit-estimates-on-the-rail-sector-to-account-for-elevated-diesel-prices
- https://earningswhispers.com/article/UNP/20548
- https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/company-news/2026/08/17/us-railroad-union-pacific-turned-charges-meant-to-cover-fuel-cost-spike-from-iran-war-into-profit/
- https://www.aar.org/news/aar-reports-weekly-rail-traffic-for-the-week-ending-september-26-2026/