← All forecasts · October 19

UAL / Q3 2026

United Airlines Holdings, Inc.

Reported: October 20, 2026

Published forecast

2026-10-19T21:20:22.475103+00:00

Opus 5.5 High in Shortcut

Shortcut

2.69

Shortcut normalized EPS

+4.0% vs Street

Off by $0.15 per share

Street

2.59

Street normalized EPS

Frozen October 18 snapshot

Off by $0.05 per share

Real

2.54

Issuer adjusted diluted EPS

Street win

Reported result · October 20 ↗ · Issuer adjusted EPS excludes special charges and credits, unrealized investment gains/losses and the related tax effects; GAAP diluted EPS was $3.14.

USD per diluted common share. Percentages use unrounded forecasts.

Model download

Explore the assumptions and calculations behind the forecast.

Open in Shortcut ↗Download XLSX ↓

Shortcut’s reasoning.

The geography and traffic build estimates passenger revenue of $16,298.29m. Cargo contributes $523.84m and other revenue $1,083.95m, giving total revenue of $17,906.08m.

Operating expenses of $16,545.71m produce operating income of $1,360.37m. Net nonoperating expense of $118m gives GAAP pre-tax income of $1,242.37m; removing a $100m special credit gives adjusted pre-tax income of $1,142.37m.

A 23% adjusted tax rate produces adjusted net income of $879.6227137974588m. Dividing by 326.59999999999997m diluted shares gives adjusted EPS of 2.693272240653579, versus frozen normalized Street EPS of $2.59. The 75% beat probability is separate and does not multiply EPS.

The original forecast EPS was 2.747818915818373. A reviewed profit-sharing method change increased the expense from $128.01806568067346m to $151.15435673109437m. The $23.13629105042091m increase, after 23% tax and divided by diluted shares, explains the entire $0.05454667516479361 EPS reduction. The method interprets the higher tier cumulatively; that plan-period interpretation and the implied first-half base remain a disclosed limitation. The second repair and exact public export preserve all 140 scored EPS dependency cells.

On the record.

Reporting basis
UAL adjusted diluted EPS, CapIQ normalized basis
Forecast completed
2026-10-19T20:47:05.004942+00:00
Published
2026-10-19T21:20:22.475103+00:00
Model assumptions and review notes
  • MEDIUM profit-sharing interpretation risk: the preserved issuer Investor Update explicitly gives the 3.6% plus 6% base rates, the 12% tier above $2.5bn, and the exclusion of profit sharing and share-based compensation from the plan base. It does not explicitly specify annual or year-to-date application in the preserved paragraph. The cumulative reading is inferred from reported accrual structure, rather than independently proven plan-period wording. The standalone-quarter alternative gives about $2.748 EPS.
  • The first-half profit-sharing base of $1,552.0833m is inferred as $149m / 9.6%. Its implied $63.0833m SBC component is derived, not issuer-reported. Adding the current $1,333.5215m base gives $2,885.60485m year to date; the additional 6% on the amount above $2.5bn produces the $23.13629m increment. Guidance fit supports the interpretation but does not prove it.
  • MEDIUM ancillary cash-flow limitation: tracked CFO of about $1,048.90m and FCF of negative $801.10m use a partial working-capital model, a $600m advance-ticket-liability unwind and no separate deferred-tax, SBC or profit-sharing-accrual roll. These metrics have low confidence. The forecast ST-investment adjustment nets all investment flows; historical issuer ST-only adjustments use a different basis. The current forecast adjustment is zero.
  • The simplified balance sheet and equity rolls omit SBC and OCI, map other financing into equity, and retain an inherited $1m balance residual. Cash, fleet, PP&E and sale-leaseback assumptions are simplified. Structural and linkage checks include identities and do not independently validate the forecast.
  • Other revenue relies in part on a residual from rounded MileagePlus disclosures. The original alternative allocation changes EPS by about $0.085. Separately, a $50m sensitivity to the rounded partner-flow base changes EPS by roughly $0.007 through the offsetting residual. Rounded quarterly and precise annual partner amounts need not add exactly.
  • Annual fleet averages use two-point balances and annual redemption rates are not directly comparable with quarters. Annual weighted shares and aggregate ratios retain their own bases. Historical memo and day-weighted share corrections are outside the scored forecast dependencies.
  • MEDIUM source-timing limitation: source pages were retrieved after the cutoff without proof that their contents were immutable at the cutoff. Displayed publication dates alone do not establish that fact; some affected evidence enters EPS. The frozen full consensus-summary CSV and UAL row were verified separately. An individual per-company file hash is a different object and was not independently established by that check.
  • The size-aware calibration uses the frozen large-cap prior, six strict historical beats and a judgmental negative 12 percentage-point update, rounding to 75%. The model-implied probability of about 63.5% is shown separately. Source, Cover column-context, long-note row heights and one header-fill inconsistency remain disclosed presentation limitations.
Research sources