← All forecasts · October 19

T / Q3 2026

AT&T

Reported: October 21, 2026

Published forecast

2026-10-20T06:55:36.226996+00:00

Opus 5.5 High in Shortcut

Shortcut

0.63

Shortcut normalized EPS

+4.4% vs Street

Off by $0.02 per share

Street

0.60

Street normalized EPS

Frozen October 18 snapshot

Off by $0.05 per share

Real

0.65

Issuer adjusted diluted EPS

Shortcut win

Reported result · October 21 ↗ · Issuer adjusted diluted EPS from continuing operations excludes disclosed impairment, employee-separation and other adjusting items.

USD per diluted common share. Percentages use unrounded forecasts.

Model download

Explore the assumptions and calculations behind the forecast.

Open in Shortcut ↗Download XLSX ↓

Shortcut’s reasoning.

Wireless pricing, service growth and fiber expansion drive the forecast, partly offset by legacy-business declines. The model projects $31.54bn revenue and $12.38bn adjusted EBITDA.

Adjusted diluted EPS is $0.63 versus the frozen Street estimate of $0.60. The calculation uses $4.285bn adjusted earnings attributable to common shares and 6.840bn diluted shares, with 22% tax and the modeled financing and buyback timing.

The $50m spectrum-interest capitalization and share timing are assumptions. Removing capitalization lowers EPS to about $0.62; plausible additional dilution can also change cent rounding. These assumptions were retained through review.

Only normalized EPS is scored. Issuer adjusted EBITDA and net-income comparisons are tracked separately because their Capital IQ definitions are not reconciled. The workbook includes the detailed sources, bridge and retained limitations.

On the record.

Reporting basis
adjusted normalized diluted EPS attributable to common continuing operations
Forecast completed
2026-10-20T01:13:41.894039+00:00
Published
2026-10-20T06:55:36.226996+00:00
Model assumptions and review notes
  • MEDIUM: The $50m spectrum-interest capitalization is an unresolved forward judgment. The cached issuer filing reports nil spectrum capitalization for the first half, but does not establish a unique Q3 figure. Removing the modeled capitalization lowers EPS from0.6263753 ($0.63 rounded) to0.6206739 ($0.62). The model assumes this $50m is included in aggregate $5,650m cash capex; a separate additional cash outflow is not proved.
  • MEDIUM: The +5m weighted-share timing offset and $24.50 buyback price are judgments. Conditional additional16m or20m diluted shares produce EPS0.6249136 or0.6245492 and change cent rounding to$0.62. These are conditional examples, not unique corrections or universal bounds.
  • LOW: Operating cash flow and FCF are guidance-anchored through a $1,350m composite working-capital/other plug; zero detailed provision/pension lines are absorbed in that total, and routing the entire plug through accounts payable is a simplified balance-sheet classification, not independent validation.
  • LOW: The issuer explicitly reports FY25 diluted GAAP EPS$3.04 and adjusted EPS$2.12; reconstructed GAAP3.049 and FY24 adjusted1.959 leave one-cent historical gaps. FY25 adjusted growth uses the issuer reported2.12/1.95 basis. The historical FY25GAAP check remains n/a with a disclosed gap.
  • LOW: Repayments reduce long-term debt while current debt stays flat; the current/long-term split is simplified. Unscored NI, EBITDA and GAAP continuing-versus-total consensus definitions are not reconciled.
  • LOW: Approximate annual EPS phasing implies Q4~0.454-0.504 versus prior0.52; this is a forecast-risk comparison, not an exact annual weighted-share identity. Some labels may clip in native Excel; artifact renders auto-fit and do not establish native Excel visual acceptance.
  • Source capture, timing and immutable pre-cutoff webpage versions are not proved for all cited inputs. The supplied playbook is v2experimental, distinct from frozenv3SKILL; .78/k8/calibration/netoverlays/final.75 are heuristics and do not multiply EPS.
Research sources