Spotify
2026-10-20T09:48:15.035367+00:00
Shortcut
2.61Shortcut normalized EPS
-8.4% vs Street
Street
2.85Street normalized EPS
Frozen October 18 snapshot
Real
2.48Published normalized diluted EPS
Shortcut win
Model download
Explore the assumptions and calculations behind the forecast.
Shortcut’s reasoning.
Premium subscribers, pricing and FX assumptions produce approximately €4.97bn in revenue and normalized diluted EPS of €2.61 versus the Street’s €2.85. EPS is in EUR per ordinary share, not USD.
The original reported-opex growth base and weighted-share carryover approximation were preserved. The disclosed alternative bases each raise EPS by about €0.004. Cash-flow allocation and some historical FX comparisons remain approximate.
On the record.
- Reporting basis
- Normalized diluted EPS per ordinary share in EUR
- Forecast completed
- 2026-10-20T06:42:27.230151+00:00
- Published
- 2026-10-20T09:48:15.035367+00:00
Model assumptions and review notes
- The retained opex growth base includes aboutEUR1m of prior-quarter social charges and adds the current-quarter charge. Removing that embedded amount raises EPS aboutEUR0.0037; the share-carryover alternative raises it aboutEUR0.0036. Both choices are explicitly retained approximations, not uniquely established source corrections.
- Historical FX uses mixed recast bases; FY finance income/costs are gross quarter sums with unchanged net finance income. Detailed cash-flow/asset allocation is simplified. Several forecast checks are construction identities, so the PASS flag is not independent economic validation.
- Earlier-dated publications were retrieved later without archived dynamic-page snapshots. Minor number/date alignment and row-spacing issues remain. The original full-precision EPS and all its dependencies were preserved.
Research sources
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639920/000114036126031044/ef20078867_ex99-1.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639920/000162828026052543/spot-20260630x6xk.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639920/000114036126017211/ef20071303_ex99-1.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639920/000114036126004482/ef20065075_ex99-1.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639920/000114036125040271/ef20057592_ex99-1.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639920/000162828025048927/spot-20250930x6xk.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639920/000162828026006874/R30.htm
- https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/08/11/spotify-spot-q2-2026-earnings-call-transcript/
- https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260924855017/en/Spotify-Technology-S.A.-to-Announce-Results-for-Third-Quarter-2026
- https://www.statmuse.com/money/ask/what-was-the-highest-price-for-spotify-technology-last-month
- https://www.bancaditalia.it/compiti/operazioni-cambi/cambio/cambi_rif_20260930/
- https://www.inderes.se/research/spotify-q326-forhandskommentar-uppsidan-mattas-av-i-takt-med-att-aktiekursen-springer-ifran
- https://www.earningswhispers.com/article/SPOT/20543
- https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/analysts-estimate-spotify-spot-report-130007377.html
- https://drillr.ai/article/spot-spotify-q3-2026-earnings-preview-pricing-ads-margins
- https://www.statmuse.com/money/ask/spotify-market-cap-2026
- https://fwd.nl/entertainment/streamingdiensten-entertainment/spotify-verhoogt-de-prijzen-van-premium-in-nederland-en-belgie/
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639920/000114036124033792/ef20032688_ex99-1.htm
- https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-july-31-2026
- https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-spotify-third-quarter-forecast-user-growth/
- https://seekingalpha.com/article/4954722-spotify-why-im-downgrading-before-q3-earnings
- https://api.finexus.net/api/news/events/dfaa1e7e-d4a1-410f-8cb7-3cc0168ef886/html