SPCX / Q3 2026

SpaceX

Reported: October 20, 2026

Published forecast

2026-10-20T09:48:15.783086+00:00

Opus 5.5 High in Shortcut

Shortcut

0.22

Shortcut normalized EPS

+68.5%* vs Street

Off by $0.13 per share

Street

0.13

Street normalized EPS

Frozen October 18 snapshot

Off by $0.22 per share

Real

0.35

Published normalized diluted EPS

Shortcut win

Reported result · October 20 ↗ · Google Finance reports normalized EPS of $0.35; the issuer separately reports the same $0.35 GAAP diluted EPS. The frozen Street estimate remains $0.13. · Normalized EPS source ↗

USD per diluted common share. Percentages use unrounded forecasts.

Limited history. The model includes a BTC fair-value gain; excluding it gives about $0.182 EPS. CapIQ’s normalized basis is unverified.

Model download

Explore the assumptions and calculations behind the forecast.

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Shortcut’s reasoning.

The Space, Connectivity and AI build forecasts approximately $12.86bn in revenue and model-normalized diluted EPS of $0.219. Only one reported historical quarter was available.

The model includes an assumed BTC fair-value gain. Excluding it gives about $0.182 EPS; the frozen Street estimate is $0.13, but the normalized comparison is unverified. Dilution and D&A allocation are material assumptions. The confirmed Cursor-award timing correction increased EPS by $0.000194; the original financial judgments were preserved.

On the record.

Reporting basis: Conditional model-normalized diluted EPS includes assumed BTC fair-value gain; CapIQ comparison unverified
Forecast completed: 2026-10-20T06:13:30.878141+00:00
Published: 2026-10-20T09:48:15.783086+00:00

Model assumptions and review notes

Only one reported historical quarter was available, per the user’s explicit inclusion. The main scenario retains the BTC fair-value gain. The provider’s normalized-consensus treatment is unresolved; excluding the gain gives about$0.181743 EPS versus the retained$0.218989. The percentage comparison and scoring remain pending a matched basis.
Exclusion of1302m restricted performance shares and a0.8 treasury-stock factor are assumptions, with alternatives around$0.19842 and$0.21699. D&A and ratio-driven operating costs are not fully reconciled; each unembedded$100m cost would reduce EPS about$0.008. Adjusted EBITDA is a tracked, sensitive metric, not a scored result.
Undisclosed zeros, inferred CSA splits, qualitative capex interpretation and some construction checks remain explicitly limited. Source snapshots and minor note/header presentation are incomplete. The only scored financial correction weights29.1m Cursor awards by48/92 days, increasing EPS from$0.21879516388641124 to$0.21898916067305688; no financial assumption was retuned.

Research sources