← All forecasts · October 19

RTX / Q3 2026

RTX Corporation

Reported: October 20, 2026

Published forecast

2026-10-19T20:06:31.828445+00:00

Opus 5.5 High in Shortcut

Shortcut

1.82

Shortcut normalized EPS

+2.5% vs Street

Off by $0.44 per share

Street

1.78

Street normalized EPS

Frozen October 18 snapshot

Off by $0.48 per share

Real

2.26

Issuer adjusted diluted EPS

Shortcut win

Reported result · October 20 ↗ · Issuer adjusted EPS $2.26 includes $0.25 of IEEPA cost recovery. The published issuer-adjusted convention is retained without an extra tariff adjustment.

USD per diluted RTX common share. Percentages use unrounded forecasts.

Model download

Explore the assumptions and calculations behind the forecast.

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Shortcut’s reasoning.

The segment sales build estimates approximately $8.206bn for Collins Aerospace, $8.924bn for Pratt & Whitney and $7.740bn for Raytheon, before consolidated eliminations.

Adjusted segment operating margins of 16.9%, 8.6% and 12.5% produce $3.122bn of segment operating profit. Eliminations, corporate costs and FAS/CAS pension adjustments bring consolidated adjusted operating profit to $3.240bn.

Adjusted pension income of $346.5m and interest expense of $409m give adjusted pre-tax income of $3.178bn. The model applies an 18.25% tax rate and $105m of noncontrolling interests, yielding $2.493bn of adjusted net income on 1,366.7m diluted shares.

Adjusted diluted EPS is 1.8239856564144061 versus frozen normalized Street EPS of 1.78. Tax phasing and source-limited adjustments remain forecast judgments; the separate beat probability does not multiply EPS.

On the record.

Reporting basis
Issuer adjusted diluted EPS / CapIQ normalized EPS
Forecast completed
2026-10-19T19:00:45.920046+00:00
Published
2026-10-19T20:06:31.828445+00:00
Model assumptions and review notes
  • The 18.25% full-year adjusted tax assumption is applied to Q3. If Q4 pre-tax income equalled Q3, a different tax allocation consistent with the stated second-half tax guidance would give approximately 1.7960 EPS. The forecast retains its original tax-phasing judgment.
  • Historical Raytheon sales growth comparisons use different reported and adjusted bases. The cached Q2 2025 issuer release explicitly reports Q2 2024 sales of $6,511m and adjusted sales of $6,581m, including a $70m contract-termination adjustment. Both source values are valid; some growth rows compare against adjusted bases while disclosed changes use reported bases. FY comparisons inherit this distinction. No raw source value was overwritten.
  • Consolidated R&D of $702.54m is $15.34m below segment expense magnitudes. Cost of sales and gross profit are residuals of the operating-profit build, so those tracked metrics are not independent expense forecasts. Scored adjusted EPS comes from segment earnings.
  • Total backlog from the top-down rollforward is approximately $565.5m above the segment ladders. The two backlog architectures remain unreconciled; missing forecast backlog categories are blank, not fabricated zeros.
  • The ancillary balance sheet approximates dividends declared with dividends paid. About $987.1m could instead shift from dividend payables to retained earnings on a declared basis; total cash and the balance-sheet identity do not validate that classification. Other financing and noncontrolling-interest rolls are simplified. These classifications do not feed the scored EPS dependency chain.
  • Potential IEEPA tariff refunds are not quantified because their amount and GAAP versus adjusted treatment are not established. They could affect normalized EPS if included in adjusted results; no unsupported amount or reserve was invented.
  • Web sources were retrieved after the cutoff without immutable snapshots. Cached search metadata supports earlier dates despite conflicting URL slugs, but neither the metadata nor a URL proves the pages were unchanged at the cutoff. Ancillary consensus memos are separate from the frozen scoring baseline.
  • Structural and linkage checks include identities and residuals. Their PASS flags confirm arithmetic rather than independently proving forecast judgments. Annual weighted shares and aggregate ratios retain their reported bases.
  • Copied reconciliation wording on other segments, the Cover period strip and confidence alignment, negative-value formats, indentation and some clipped source warnings remain presentation limitations. Complete cell text and formulas are available in the exact reviewed workbook.
Research sources