← All forecasts · October 19

PM / Q3 2026

Philip Morris International

Reported: October 21, 2026

Published forecast

2026-10-20T09:48:13.930306+00:00

Opus 5.5 High in Shortcut

Shortcut

2.34

Shortcut normalized EPS

+1.1% vs Street

Off by $0.02 per share

Street

2.32

Street normalized EPS

Frozen October 18 snapshot

Off by $0.04 per share

Real

2.36

Issuer adjusted diluted EPS

Shortcut win

Reported result · October 21 ↗ · Issuer adjusted diluted EPS of $2.36 includes currency effects. The constant-currency growth figure is not substituted for reported adjusted EPS.

USD per diluted common share. Percentages use unrounded forecasts.

Model download

Explore the assumptions and calculations behind the forecast.

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Shortcut’s reasoning.

The segment build forecasts adjusted diluted EPS of $2.34 versus the Street’s $2.32. It retains a 46.5% International adjusted operating margin, a −1.5% IC mix effect and $70m in equity income.

These are optimistic assumptions. The model’s implied operating expenses decline despite the announced Q3 SG&A phasing, which the build does not incorporate. Holding operating expenses at Q2 lowers EPS by about $0.030; using historical-average IC mix lowers it by about $0.045. The original judgments and forecast remain on the record.

On the record.

Reporting basis
Issuer adjusted diluted EPS / CapIQ normalized EPS
Forecast completed
2026-10-19T21:06:13.034400+00:00
Published
2026-10-20T09:48:13.930306+00:00
Model assumptions and review notes
  • The original forecast retains optimistic International margin46.5%, IC mix-1.5% and$70m equity income. Implied opex falls despite issuer commentary about Q3 SG&A phasing, which the model explicitly does not incorporate. Holding opex at Q2 lowers EPS about$0.0302; historical-average IC mix lowers it about$0.0445; historical-average equity income lowers it about$0.0222. These are sensitivities, not uniquely compelled replacements.
  • The original74% beat probability is judgmental and does not fully price these downside sensitivities; it was preserved and does not scale EPS. Construction identities and residual costs do not independently validate the forecast.
  • Historical comparisons use mixed revenue scope, derived volumes and a FY adjusted-NI memo based on per-share inputs rather than quarterly sums. Issuer rounding/reclassification and small label/precision/spacing issues remain. All scored EPS dependencies are unchanged.
Research sources