← All forecasts · October 19

NOC / Q3 2026

Northrop Grumman Corporation

Reported: October 20, 2026

Published forecast

2026-10-19T18:50:11.964894+00:00

Opus 5.5 High in Shortcut

Shortcut

7.22

Shortcut normalized EPS

+0.6% vs Street

Off by $0.67 per share

Street

7.18

Street normalized EPS

Frozen October 18 snapshot

Off by $0.71 per share

Real

7.89

Diluted EPS; MTM-adjusted basis with no quarterly MTM adjustment reported

Shortcut win

Reported result · October 20 ↗ · Issuer reports diluted EPS $7.89. MTM-adjusted EPS excludes pension mark-to-market adjustments; none is reported for this quarter. Recurring FAS/CAS pension income is retained.

USD per diluted Northrop Grumman common share. Percentages use unrounded forecasts.

Model download

Explore the assumptions and calculations behind the forecast.

Open in Shortcut ↗Download XLSX ↓

Shortcut’s reasoning.

The model builds revenue from each segment’s opening backlog and assumed quarterly conversion rates. It estimates $11.137 billion of revenue and $1.272 billion of segment operating income after intersegment eliminations.

After the FAS/CAS adjustment and unallocated corporate costs, forecast operating income is $1.201 billion. Interest, pension and other income give $1.246 billion of pretax income. A 17.5% tax rate produces $1.028 billion of net income.

Dividing by 142.4 million diluted shares gives normalized EPS of $7.219607 against the frozen Street estimate of $7.18. GAAP and normalized EPS coincide in the forecast because the model assumes no pension mark-to-market adjustment for the quarter. The separate experimental beat probability does not adjust EPS.

On the record.

Reporting basis
Issuer MTM-adjusted diluted EPS / CapIQ normalized EPS; current quarter zero MTM equals GAAP
Forecast completed
2026-10-19T17:48:03.269488+00:00
Published
2026-10-19T18:50:11.964894+00:00
Model assumptions and review notes
  • Segment margins and backlog conversion rates are forecast judgments. Defense Systems and Space Systems margins of10.8% are below the mechanically implied second-half guidance rates of about11.26% and11.19%; workbook notes overstate the precision of that derivation. No assumptions were moved toward guidance or consensus.
  • G&A is a balancing figure between the segment profit build and consolidated cost ratios. The implied8.88% G&A ratio is below recent history; gross profit and gross margin therefore have allocation uncertainty. EPS follows segment profit rather than an independently estimated G&A expense.
  • Reported FY2025 training costs of-20m versus quarterly-19m and other unallocated costs of-223m versus quarterly-224m do not separately add, although their net effect offsets. Cached issuer quarterly values were retained. An unsupported1m reclassification could change forecast EPS by about0.00145; it was not applied.
  • The balance sheet uses aggregate depreciation and amortization in the PP&E roll while holding intangible assets flat. The17m combined amortization/step-up depreciation line cannot be independently split from the cached source. Asset classifications are approximate.
  • Financing, repurchases and other investing flows are currently assumed zero. The balance sheet and share forecast do not support arbitrary nonzero scenarios in those lines without further modeling; the current zero-input case reconciles.
  • Weighted-average and period-end share changes use a shared zero-change assumption. This is not a model of intraperiod buyback timing.
  • Some checks are identities or linkage checks. PASS establishes internal consistency and historical ties; it does not independently validate forecast judgments.
  • The guidance-implied second-half EPS calculation subtracts quarterly per-share amounts and is an approximation rather than an exact weighted-share reconciliation.
  • Annual backlog conversion rates are annual measures and should not be compared directly with quarterly rates. Negative-base, sign-changing and very small-base percentage changes can be economically misleading.
  • Product, service, segment and geographic growth figures may use analyst definitions or no-scope-change assumptions rather than issuer-reported organic growth. Do not treat unavailable values as zero.
  • The size bucket follows market capitalization. Index membership uses third-party evidence, and the quarter-specific probability adjustment is judgmental. Frozen calibration assumptions were preserved and do not multiply EPS.
  • Research was retrieved after the stated information cutoff. Earlier publication dates do not independently prove an immutable cutoff snapshot or exclude later search-snippet influence.
  • Some raw input strings, source headings and long notes remain clipped or overflow; guidance context headers and annual-versus-quarter labels are imperfect. Full cell contents and the material review limitations are retained in the downloadable model and these notes.
Research sources