NFLX / Q3 2026

Netflix, Inc.

Reported: October 20, 2026

Published forecast

2026-10-19T16:14:29.130294+00:00

Opus 5.5 High in Shortcut

Shortcut

0.83

Shortcut normalized EPS

+0.8% vs Street

Off by $0.04 per share

Street

0.82

Street normalized EPS

Frozen October 18 snapshot

Off by $0.05 per share

Real

0.87

Issuer diluted EPS

Shortcut win

Reported result · October 20 ↗ · Reported diluted EPS; Netflix provides no separate adjusted EPS. Scored under the published zero-exclusion assumption; CapIQ’s separate normalized-net-income definition remains unresolved.

USD per diluted common share (post 10-for-1 split). Percentages use unrounded forecasts.

Model download

Explore the assumptions and calculations behind the forecast.

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Shortcut’s reasoning.

Issuer guidance (16-Jul-2026): revenue $12.86bn, operating income $4.27bn (33.2%), net income $3.45bn, EPS $0.82 - identical to the frozen CapIQ EPS consensus.

Regional build (UCAN +10%, EMEA +9.5%, LATAM +14%, APAC +15% FX-neutral; total +10.9% FX-neutral, +11.8% reported) gives revenue $12.87bn, in line with guidance/consensus; dollar flat over 3Q26.

Operating margin 33.4% (vs 33.2% guide): Netflix beat its operating-income forecast by $51-97m in each of the last three quarters; partly offset by 2Q26 expense-timing reversal and live-event costs.

Below the line: interest expense $186m (incl. new $1bn 2036 notes), other income $48m, 16.5% tax rate -> net income $3.48bn.

The model assumes $3.0bn of repurchases at $74 and a 4.75m dilution add-on. Severance from the October14 layoffs is assumed in Q4; a Q3 accrual is a downside risk.

On the record.

Reporting basis: CapIQ normalized diluted EPS forecast, assuming zero Q3 exclusions; provider normalized-NI basis remains unresolved
Forecast completed: 2026-10-19T07:35:49.405034+00:00
Published: 2026-10-19T16:14:29.130294+00:00

Model assumptions and review notes

The forecast assumes zero Q3 normalization exclusions. Frozen CapIQ normalized and GAAP net-income means differ by $17.79m; the provider exclusion basis is unresolved.
The 4.75m dilution add-on, $3.0bn buyback at $74, and share-issuance timing are forecast assumptions. Historical share-count observations cannot all be distinguished as period-end versus filing-cover dates.
Layoff severance is assumed in Q4; a Q3 accrual would change GAAP EPS and potentially normalized EPS.
Sources were retrieved after the cutoff without immutable page snapshots; cited publication dates precede the cutoff. The experimental beat-probability prior is not an established empirical guarantee.
Balance-sheet balances reflect a cash-flow mapping identity; workbook wording calling that check independent overstates its scope. Debt classification and some restricted-cash history remain source-limited.
Guidance history includes a fee-driven 1Q26 beat. Some memo labels, row hierarchy, Q/Q-Y/Y order and unavailable balance markers remain imperfect; formula checks pass.
Two historical restricted-cash reconciliations are identities because restricted cash is derived. Historical EPS growth mixes issuer reported rounding conventions; US/Canada revenue analysis is indicative because US disclosures are rounded.

Research sources