← All forecasts · October 19

META / Q3 2026

Meta Platforms

Reported: October 21, 2026

Published forecast

2026-10-20T09:17:50.921750+00:00

Opus 5.5 High in Shortcut

Shortcut

6.96

Shortcut normalized EPS

Basis pending

Off by $0.44 per share

Street

6.76

Street normalized EPS

Frozen October 18 snapshot

Off by $0.64 per share

Real

7.40

Published normalized diluted EPS

Shortcut win

Reported result · October 21 ↗ · Normalized EPS of $7.40 excludes the $9.89bn legal charge, consistent with the original model exclusion; GAAP EPS was $3.83. Google Finance labels $7.40 normalized. The frozen Street estimate remains $6.76; its contributor-level adjustments are unavailable. · Normalized EPS source ↗

USD per diluted common share. Percentages use unrounded forecasts.

The model excludes the assumed $10bn settlement. CapIQ’s treatment is unverified; the model’s alternative with the charge is about $3.69.

Model download

Explore the assumptions and calculations behind the forecast.

Open in Shortcut ↗Download XLSX ↓

Shortcut’s reasoning.

Advertising volume and pricing drive a $63.86bn revenue forecast. The model’s ex-settlement operating margin, 16% tax rate and 2.572bn diluted shares produce model-normalized EPS of $6.96.

That EPS excludes the assumed $10bn settlement accrual. The frozen Street EPS is $6.76, but the contributors’ treatment of the settlement is unverified. Keeping the charge gives a model EPS scenario of about $3.69. The original forecast is preserved, with the percentage comparison pending a matched basis.

On the record.

Reporting basis
Model-normalized diluted EPS excludes assumed$10bn settlement; future CapIQ treatment unverified
Forecast completed
2026-10-19T22:20:50.602551+00:00
Published
2026-10-20T09:17:50.921750+00:00
Model assumptions and review notes
  • The original model-normalized EPS excludes the assumed$10bn settlement accrual. CapIQ’s future classification is unverified and the frozen contributor aggregates mix bases. If the accrual is retained, the model’s GAAP-case EPS is approximately$3.6925 rather than$6.9584. These are conditional scenarios, not proof of a like-for-like Street comparison.
  • The GAAP memo assumes the settlement is tax-deductible at16%; full non-deductibility would lower GAAP EPS to about$3.0704. Ex-settlement normalized EPS stays$6.9584 under a consistent bridge.
  • Cash tax timing is unresolved: a fully deferred$1.6bn tax shield would lower CFO/FCF and cash by$1.6bn without changing EPS. Segment operating-income allocation is a plug, historical growth rows mix bases, and FY cash-flow components include reclassifications. Minor note clipping remains.
Research sources