← All forecasts · October 19

LRCX / Q1 FY2027

Lam Research Corporation

Reported: October 21, 2026

Published forecast

2026-10-20T00:01:52.478129+00:00

Opus 5.5 High in Shortcut

Shortcut

2.24

Shortcut normalized EPS

+2.9% vs Street

Off by $0.04 per share

Street

2.18

Street normalized EPS

Frozen October 18 snapshot

Off by $0.02 per share

Real

2.20

Issuer non-GAAP diluted EPS

Street win

Reported result · October 21 ↗ · Fiscal Q1 FY2027 ended September 27. Non-GAAP diluted EPS was $2.20; GAAP diluted EPS was $2.19.

USD per per diluted common share. Percentages use unrounded forecasts.

Model download

Explore the assumptions and calculations behind the forecast.

Open in Shortcut ↗Download XLSX ↓

Shortcut’s reasoning.

The model forecasts revenue of $8,249.3305776 million from end-market systems and customer-support builds. Applying the assumed 52.4% non-GAAP gross margin gives gross profit of $4,322.649 million.

Subtracting $1,010 million of operating expense and $2.131 million of net other expense gives non-GAAP pre-tax income of $3,310.518 million. The assumed 15% tax rate gives non-GAAP net income of $2,813.940 million.

Dividing by the guided 1,255 million diluted shares gives non-GAAP diluted EPS of 2.2421836567832996, versus the frozen Street estimate of $2.18. The complete public export preserves all 81 cells in the scored EPS dependency chain.

Historical end-market revenue is reconstructed from rounded mix percentages and then grown by the model assumptions. That rounding can affect forecast EPS. The separate 84.9% beat probability is a heuristic and does not multiply the EPS forecast.

On the record.

Reporting basis
non-GAAP normalized diluted EPS
Forecast completed
2026-10-19T21:59:34.148659+00:00
Published
2026-10-20T00:01:52.478129+00:00
Model assumptions and review notes
  • The scored period is Lam fiscal Q1 FY2027, ended September 27, 2026. The frozen CapIQ September 30 calendar shorthand remains unchanged in the inputs and comparison; it is not a change to the issuer fiscal period.
  • Historical end-market dollars are reconstructed from whole-percentage mix disclosures. Moving 0.5 percentage point between a 35% and 20% growth bucket changes EPS by about $0.001131; a two-pair conservative example is about $0.002262. These examples do not bound every model error. The public auditor’s roughly $0.001 description understates its own roughly $6.4 million revenue example.
  • The guided 1,255 million diluted-share denominator is used for EPS. An illustrative buyback/issuance roll-forward implies about 1,255.806 million diluted shares and does not drive EPS. Using that alternative would give about $2.2407 EPS; it is not a required correction.
  • The balance sheet deducts dividends paid at $0.26 per opening share rather than separately accruing the newly declared $0.33 dividend. Using the same opening share anchor would imply about an $87.6 million equity/current-liability classification difference. Record-date shares and an exact payable are not independently established; this does not change the fixed net-income/EPS forecast.
  • Some displayed checks are construction identities. Europe’s 2% historical regional share is a disclosed residual where the release left it blank, so its regional sum check is also satisfied by construction. PASS is not independent validation.
  • Guidance net income is derived from EPS midpoint times guided shares. The CapIQ share count of about 1,255.752 million is an implied ratio, not independently sourced consensus shares. The CapIQ EBIT basis underlying the derived margin is unverified.
  • Free cash flow is a tracked CFO-minus-capex/intangibles convention. An exact issuer definition was not identified in the reviewed cached evidence. A matching single-quarter cash-return ratio does not establish the cited full-year or year-to-date basis.
  • MEDIUM: The Tradestie preview has October 14 Exa metadata and an October 21 event date in its URL, but no immutable publisher timestamp or snapshot was proved. Qualitative source use can influence assumptions even without a direct numeric cell link. No new research or financial retuning was performed.
  • Depreciation of $125 million represents about 4.48% growth over $119.642 million, rather than the roughly 3% quoted in its note. The forecast remains $125 million. Annual DSO uses an annual revenue basis and is not comparable with quarter DSO.
  • Presentation limits remain: DSO negatives use minus signs, Guidance result/source columns can look crowded, and GAAP/non-GAAP EPS guidance rows share a label but have distinct basis descriptors. The 0.78 prior and final 84.9% probability are heuristics, not empirically established probabilities. No native Excel visual verification is claimed.
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