← All forecasts · October 19

ISRG / Q3 2026

Intuitive Surgical, Inc.

Reported: October 20, 2026

Published forecast

2026-10-19T18:12:12.334488+00:00

Opus 5.5 High in Shortcut

Shortcut

2.76

Shortcut normalized EPS

+4.5% vs Street

Off by $0.24 per share

Street

2.64

Street normalized EPS

Frozen October 18 snapshot

Off by $0.36 per share

Real

3.00

Issuer non-GAAP diluted EPS

Shortcut win

Reported result · October 20 ↗ · Issuer non-GAAP EPS includes a $0.06 tariff-refund benefit. The issuer’s published convention is retained without an extra deduction.

USD per diluted Intuitive Surgical common share. Percentages use unrounded forecasts.

Model download

Explore the assumptions and calculations behind the forecast.

Open in Shortcut ↗Download XLSX ↓

Shortcut’s reasoning.

The model estimates revenue of $2.942 billion from procedure volumes, instruments and accessories, system placements and service revenue. It applies a 68.5% non-GAAP gross margin and $819.53 million of operating expenses, producing $1.196 billion of non-GAAP operating income.

After $80 million of other income, a 22.5% non-GAAP tax rate and $5 million attributable to noncontrolling interests, forecast non-GAAP net income is $983.94 million. Dividing by 356.63 million diluted shares gives normalized EPS of $2.758965, compared with the frozen Street estimate of $2.64.

The share forecast retains $500 million of repurchases at $375 per share, issuance and dilution assumptions. The separate experimental beat-probability estimate does not multiply or otherwise adjust the EPS forecast.

On the record.

Reporting basis
Issuer non-GAAP diluted EPS / CapIQ normalized EPS
Forecast completed
2026-10-19T17:26:30.739573+00:00
Published
2026-10-19T18:12:12.334488+00:00
Model assumptions and review notes
  • Non-GAAP EPS is the scored basis. GAAP EPS is $2.217148; the frozen GAAP net-income and EPS estimates use different contributor sets, so their comparisons are indicative. The CapIQ EBIT comparison is not verified to match issuer non-GAAP operating income.
  • The gross-margin and tax assumptions use guidance midpoints. Product cost of revenue is a residual allocation; product margin is an output rather than an independent forecast.
  • Buybacks, issuance, dilution, procedure and system assumptions remain forecasts. Historical zero M&A/scope impacts are not independently confirmed; historical organic-growth figures are indicative assumptions. The 2026 distributor acquisition was outside the US; future US scope is assumed zero.
  • Historical US service revenue of $258.1 million and OUS instruments and accessories revenue of $456.8 million genuinely repeat in 2Q25 and 3Q25; the cached issuer table confirms them.
  • Several forecast checks are identities by construction. The FY25 reported-revenue check partly reuses quarterly totals. Calibration counts all six complete pairs in this dataset; it is not robust to a hypothetical missing actual.
  • Cash-flow gain-on-sale, asset-sale proceeds and FX-on-cash inputs are zero. The balance-sheet mapping does not support arbitrary nonzero scenarios for those lines.
  • Sources were retrieved after the October 18 cutoff without immutable pre-cutoff page snapshots. Publication dates precede the cutoff, but the EDGAR latest-filing date does not prove absence of later filings at the cutoff.
  • Minor workbook presentation limits remain: source URL alignment, local period headers, title indentation, date-header alignment and overlapping guidance/source labels. Missing-value markers mean: n.a. not applicable, n.d. not disclosed, n.f. not forecast, n.m. not meaningful.
Research sources