General Motors Company
2026-10-19T19:09:14.955848+00:00
Shortcut
3.70Shortcut normalized EPS
+1.9% vs Street
Street
3.63Street normalized EPS
Frozen October 18 snapshot
Real
3.70Issuer EPS-diluted-adjusted
Shortcut win
Model download
Explore the assumptions and calculations behind the forecast.
Shortcut’s reasoning.
The segment build gives EBIT-adjusted of $4.015bn: GM North America $3.454bn, GM International $0.172bn and GM Financial $0.650bn, less $0.260bn of corporate costs.
The North America bridge includes a $765m year-over-year warranty benefit, pricing, regulatory savings and lower EV losses, offset by tariffs, manufacturing and commodity costs. The warranty allocation to North America is uncertain.
After interest, other income, tax and common-share adjustments, normalized net income is $3.264bn. The share model assumes $1.5bn of repurchases at $78, half-quarter weighting, 1m issuance and 14m dilution.
Normalized EPS is 3.697563976105113 on 882.8361563846154m diluted shares, versus frozen Street EPS of 3.63. The narrow difference is sensitive to the share-count method; the probability judgment is separate and does not multiply EPS.
On the record.
- Reporting basis
- Issuer EPS-diluted-adjusted / CapIQ normalized EPS
- Forecast completed
- 2026-10-19T17:49:50.950948+00:00
- Published
- 2026-10-19T19:09:14.955848+00:00
Model assumptions and review notes
- The July 10 filing-cover share count is not a June 30 balance. Early-July buybacks may overlap the anchor; historical back-tests run 5.8–11.5m shares low. Alternative bases give approximately $3.65–3.69 EPS. Most of the gap to consensus comes from shares, not net income.
- The original cached Q2 call says full-year warranty improvement of $1.0–1.5bn, with $0.5bn realized in the first half and most remaining benefit in Q3. The model allocates the $765m consolidated improvement entirely to GMNA, with possible overlap in GMI. The segment split is not established; $100m pretax is about $0.092 EPS.
- Q3 uses about 59% of guidance-implied second-half EBIT-adjusted. At the annual guidance midpoints, the residual Q4 is about $2.787bn EBIT-adjusted and approximately $2.03 EPS; the per-share subtraction is approximate, not an independent annual weighted-share forecast.
- Tracked CFO and FCF have low confidence: the provision/charge-off split between operating and investing cash flow may misclassify approximately $346.9m even though total cash reconciles. Forecast working-capital, FX, deferred-tax and affiliate-earnings cash adjustments are assumed zero.
- FY25 and its quarters do not fully add: revenue -$4m, stockholder net income -$5m, EBIT-adjusted -$5m and adjusted net income -$19m. The annual common-income allocation is $483m versus $497m summed quarters. Reported issuer rows and rounded-component reconstructions differ by $1m; no balancing item is invented.
- Historical GMI EBIT-adjusted excluding China mixes GAAP China JV losses, including restructuring, with adjusted segment EBIT and is not comparable on a clean basis. Current GMI EBIT excluding China is a separate assumption.
- The Geo note overstates observed coverage: U.S. and Other North America industry volumes are flat-year-over-year assumptions. Some zero assumptions display as dashes. The FY CapIQ revenue memo is a sum of quarters, not a supplied annual CapIQ figure.
- Residual cost of sales, operating income and gross profit are derived from the chosen earnings build; they are not independently forecast financial statements. Buybacks are charged entirely to retained earnings with APIC flat.
- The master PASS checks stated reconciliation ranges, excluding disclosed annual exceptions. Some link checks are structural identities. Negative or sign-changing-base growth percentages, dated cover counts under quarter columns, count formats and date alignment remain imperfect.
- Web sources were retrieved after the cutoff without immutable page snapshots. Cited publication dates do not establish that the fetched content was unchanged at the cutoff. Experimental probability calibration and source-limited index membership are not independently verified guarantees.
- Normalized and GAAP net-income consensus contributor sets and common-versus-stockholder bases are not verified like-for-like. Only normalized EPS against the frozen 3.63 consensus is scored.