← All forecasts · October 19

BX / Q3 2026

Blackstone

Reported: October 22, 2026

Published forecast

2026-10-20T08:54:28.020706+00:00

Opus 5.5 High in Shortcut

Shortcut

1.29

Shortcut normalized EPS

+0.7% vs Street

Off by $0.03 per share

Street

1.28

Street normalized EPS

Frozen October 18 snapshot

Off by $0.04 per share

Real

1.32

Issuer distributable earnings per participating common share

Shortcut win

Reported result · October 22 ↗ · Distributable earnings were $1.32 per participating common share, the original forecast convention; GAAP diluted EPS was $0.83.

USD per participating common share. Percentages use unrounded forecasts.

Model download

Explore the assumptions and calculations behind the forecast.

Open in Shortcut ↗Download XLSX ↓

Shortcut’s reasoning.

The fee, AUM and realization build produces distributable earnings per participating common share of $1.29 versus the Street’s $1.28. This uses Blackstone’s participating common-share method, rather than total distributable earnings divided by all units.

Realizations, fee-earning assets and the assumed 8.5% taxes-and-payables rate drive the result. Cash-flow detail is a simplified scenario, and an auxiliary net-income comparison has an unverified mapping to distributable earnings.

On the record.

Reporting basis
Distributable earnings per participating common share; CapIQ normalized EPS
Forecast completed
2026-10-20T05:19:09.750851+00:00
Published
2026-10-20T08:54:28.020706+00:00
Model assumptions and review notes
  • Operating cash flow is a simplified scenario, with changed treatment of realized compensation and indicative distributions. Cash flow and balance-sheet detail are tracked, not scored; they do not enter the proven unchanged EPS dependency chain.
  • The extra net-income consensus comparison has an unverified mapping to distributable earnings and should be treated as indicative. Historical TRA detail, AUM rounding and small note/header/share-unit presentation issues remain. The scored EPS uses issuer participating common-share arithmetic.
  • The standard-deviation memo describes an RSS of about0.0707 rounded up to0.08; the original judgmental final probability was preserved, rather than retuned.
Research sources