← All forecasts · October 19

ABBN / Q3 2026

ABB Ltd

Reported: October 20, 2026

Published forecast

2026-10-19T16:49:57.931014+00:00

Opus 5.5 High in Shortcut

Shortcut

0.83

Shortcut normalized EPS

+0.8% vs Street

Off by $0.08 per share

Street

0.82

Street normalized EPS

Frozen October 18 snapshot

Off by $0.07 per share

Real

0.75

Normalized diluted EPS

Street win

Reported result · October 20 ↗ · Normalized diluted EPS of $0.75 supplied by the user. Issuer financials separately report GAAP diluted EPS of $0.68 from continuing operations and $0.65 total.

USD per diluted ABB share. Percentages use unrounded forecasts.

Model download

Explore the assumptions and calculations behind the forecast.

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Shortcut’s reasoning.

The segment build forecasts revenue of $9.68bn and operational EBITA of $1.98bn: Electrification revenue $5.45bn, Motion $2.22bn and Automation $2.15bn, with $140m of corporate costs.

The model bridges operational EBITA to GAAP net income of $1.41bn, then removes discontinued operations and adds after-tax non-operational items to reach normalized net income of $1.50bn.

Forecast diluted shares are 1.815bn. Normalized EPS is $0.8263939745293005, compared with the frozen $0.82 Street estimate. ABB reports in USD despite its CHF share listing.

The buyback programme starting balance is derived rather than independently sourced. Geographic allocations remain unreconciled and are excluded from scored EPS. These limitations and the separate GAAP EPS of about$0.77750 are retained in the model.

On the record.

Reporting basis
CapIQ normalized diluted EPS with calibrated non-operational adjustment bridge
Forecast completed
2026-10-19T07:40:53.931883+00:00
Published
2026-10-19T16:49:57.931014+00:00
Model assumptions and review notes
  • Only two frozen consensus EPS estimates are available; ABB is included by explicit authorization. EPS is USD per diluted ABB share despite its CHF listing.
  • Group normalized EPS uses a calibrated 25% adjustment tax rate versus a 25.3% P&L tax rate; the NCI share of normalization adjustments is not quantified.
  • Geographic forecasts and segment geographic mixes are unreconciled: implied Corporate & Other revenue is negative in the Americas and US. These ancillary allocations do not enter the scored EPS dependency chain; no unsupported allocation was invented.
  • Group restatement ties are verified, but segment third-quarter 2025 bases are derived across restated half-year and full-year sources without a separate issuer restated quarterly segment tie.
  • The GAAP gross-profit/expense split and balance-sheet mappings use disclosed residuals and simplifications. Several checks are identities and do not independently validate forecast assumptions.
  • Buyback spend uses 1.25 USD/CHF while market-cap classification uses 1.221. These different bases are disclosed; neither enters scored EPS. Some original market sources lack immutable cutoff snapshots.
  • Some long metric labels remain clipped, historical products-share growth cells display n.a. despite being computable, and the Cover guide-mid label includes a floor-based figure explained in its note.
  • The final 65% beat probability is a judgmental overlay on an experimental prior; it is not an EPS multiplier or an established empirical guarantee.
  • The June 2026 programme cumulative buyback is derived rather than independently sourced; it enters forecast shares. A roughly0.86m-share difference would move normalized EPS by about$0.0002.
  • The bridge calibration note says within$0.005, while the actual largest difference is$0.0050027; the correct rounded bound is$0.01. Some Cover timeline, share-count issuer labels, guidance labels and Geo memo labels remain ambiguous or clipped.
  • Some2024 year-ago NI/EPS comparatives lack a source tie and confirmed restatement basis; they affect historical growth displays, not the forecast EPS dependency chain.
Research sources