Carnival Corporation Ltd.

What drives the forecast

• June 23 guidance targets adjusted Q3 net income of approximately $1.86bn and diluted EPS of $1.35 on 1,377m shares; historical Q4/Q1/Q2 guidance was beaten, but guidance already reflected Middle East disruption.
• September 24 normalized consensus is $1.35 on 21 normalized contributors and revenue is $8,390.79m; September 24 Zacks described an 11.8% downward EPS revision in the prior month.
• Jefferies' September 23 preview cited unhedged fuel and weaker advertised cruise fares, lowered Q3 revenue to $8.36bn, while still forecasting adjusted EBITDA $2.93bn versus guidance $2.88bn; assume only a small miss rather than extrapolating crude prices directly to booked fuel.
• Model projects 1.5% Q3 ALBD growth, segment revenue of $8,358.891m (North America $5,492.396m; Europe $2,589.265m; Cruise Support $103.6m; Tour $173.63m), $620m fuel and $740m depreciation, reflecting European booking and fuel headwinds.
• Royal Caribbean's July 28 results showed strong close-in demand but modest Mediterranean booking pressure; company had 93% of FY26 booked in June, limiting both upside and downside. Forecast adjusted EPS of $1.321 is below consensus with 40% probability of strictly beating it.