Vistra Corp.

Shortcut’s reasoning.

Ongoing Adj. EBITDA modelled at $2,125m (Street $2,110-2,173m per Raymond James/BofA previews); built Y/Y by segment: Texas +$208m (Martin Lake return, gas margins, less 3Q25 PTC catch-up), East +$294m (Lotus, PJM capacity $329/MW-day), Retail +$45m.

Mapping EBITDA to the consensus normalized basis (less D&A incl. ~$122m nuclear fuel amortization, ~$308m interest, 23% tax and $47m preferred dividends) gives $2.58 on 337.6m diluted shares — this bridge reproduced consensus normalized actuals within $0.10 in 3Q25, 1Q26 and 2Q26 but missed 4Q25 by +$0.64 (consensus above model), the main upside risk.

Consensus $3.08 (4 estimates, low $2.72) appears to exclude nuclear-fuel amortization and preferred dividends (EBITDA $2,142m - D&A $498m - interest $301m, taxed at 23% = $1,042m with no preferred deduction), so the consensus data-computed actual is likely to land below it unless EBITDA exceeds ~$2.35bn.

2026 guidance ($6.8-7.6bn, 'at or above midpoint') implies 2H26 of ~$3.94bn; 3Q26E is ~54% of that, above the 42-48% seasonal share of 2024-25, so no upward adjustment to the Street EBITDA anchor.

Revenue $5.34bn is volume x price by segment (retail GWh x $/MWh; generation TWh x realized $/MWh) with zero unrealized hedging revenue; consensus revenue has overshot reported revenue in 5 of the last 6 quarters as hedging MTM sits in revenue.

Cohort prior 0.78 (S&P 500, $46bn market cap) and 1 beat in 6 gives a 0.52 starting probability; lowered to 0.18 for the modelled -$0.50 gap to consensus.