UPST / FQ3 2026 (quarter ended 2026-09-30)

Upstart Holdings, Inc.

Reported: Nov 3, 2026

Forecast published

Nov 2, 2026 at 4:10 PM PST

Opus 5.5 High in Shortcut

Review incomplete

Shortcut

0.53

Normalized diluted EPS

-16.4% vs Street

Off by $0.12 per share

Street

0.64

Normalized diluted EPS

November 1 consensus snapshot

Off by $0.01 per share

Real

0.65

Reported normalized EPS

Street win

Reported result · Nov 3 ↗ · Upstart reports diluted EPS of $0.33 and no longer reports adjusted EPS. Rebuilt from its quarterly report ↗ the way Upstart used to report adjusted EPS, the figure is $0.62 to $0.66; $0.65 is shown. The Street is closer on every reading. Held for this basis check from the report until November 9.

USD per diluted ordinary/common share. Comparisons use unrounded estimates.

Model download

Explore the assumptions and calculations behind the forecast. This is the agent’s original workbook. Its review didn’t finish, so it hasn’t been checked or repaired.

Open in Shortcut ↗Download XLSX ↓

Shortcut’s reasoning.

Q3 originations already pre-released at $4,117.8m (Jul $1,397.4m, Sep $1,378.3m), -2.6% Q/Q; with take rates held at 2Q26 levels fee revenue is $337.6m vs $348.0m in 2Q26.

Interest/fair-value line modelled at $19.1m (2Q26 $16.7m): UMI flat at 1.49-1.50 but the 2-yr Treasury rose 74bp in Q3 after the first Fed hike since 2023, pressuring FV marks; revenue $356.7m vs $363.7m consensus.

Management guided fixed expenses to grow low single digits Q/Q and FY SBC ~$170m; model holds fixed costs at ~$195.5m and contribution margin at ~56%, giving GAAP NI $13.9m (EPS $0.13) vs $26.8m consensus.

Normalized EPS basis verified: consensus 2Q26 actual 0.57 and 1Q26 0.30 equal (GAAP NI + SBC & payroll tax) / GAAP diluted shares; 3Q26E $58.9m / 110.1m shares = $0.53.

No quarterly guidance since FY26; FY26 guide ($1.4bn revenue, $294m adj. EBITDA) implies a stronger 2H26 and is the main upside risk, alongside a 5/6 historical beat record.

Size/history prior 0.757 (mid-cap $2.24bn, 5 beats in 6) cut to 0.30 because the bottom-up mean is ~$0.10 below consensus.

On the record.

Reporting period: FQ3 2026 (quarter ended 2026-09-30)
Reporting basis: Normalized diluted EPS per common share, USD (normalized EPS: GAAP net income + stock-based compensation and certain payroll tax - extinguishment gains, / diluted weighted shares)
Consensus snapshot: November 1, 2026
Model / effort: Opus 5.5 · High effort
Workbook: Original workbook · review incomplete

Record history

Forecast generated: Nov 1, 2026 at 11:01 PM PST
First posted: Nov 2, 2026 at 4:10 PM PST
Result checked: Nov 8, 2026 at 12:59 PM PST

Result basis

Upstart reports diluted EPS of $0.33 and no longer reports adjusted EPS. Rebuilt from its quarterly report ↗ the way Upstart used to report adjusted EPS, the figure is $0.62 to $0.66; $0.65 is shown. The Street is closer on every reading. Held for this basis check from the report until November 9.