Atlassian Corporation

Shortcut’s reasoning.

Guidance-implied EPS is about equal to consensus: $1,710m revenue midpoint x 28.5% non-GAAP operating margin, less $10.6m non-operating items, at a 24% tax rate on 254.4m shares = $1.42, vs the $1.43 consensus.

Atlassian beat its own guidance in every one of the last five quarters (4Q25-4Q26): revenue beat the midpoint by 2.2%-6.6% and non-GAAP operating margin beat by 203-648 bps. Normalized EPS beat consensus in 6 of 6 supplied consensus quarters, by $0.04-$0.41.

The estimate stays below every one of those historical beats: cloud +30.5% vs the ~28.5% guide, Data Center -1.5% vs -4.0%, Marketplace +13.5% vs +12.5%, giving revenue of $1,739.7m (+1.7% vs the midpoint). Non-GAAP gross margin is 87.2% and non-GAAP opex is $996m, giving a 29.9% operating margin (+145 bps vs guide).

Downside risks: the cloud guide has only a 2.3-point cushion vs the 4Q26 actual (typically about 3 points); the FY27 Data Center decline guide (-17%) reflects term-license revenue pulled forward after the end-of-life announcement; and the FY27 non-GAAP tax rate is not yet published (consensus implies about 25%; each +1 point is about -$0.02 EPS).

Sell-side previews after August (Oppenheimer revenue ~$1,783m, Guggenheim cloud +32%) and price-target raises were published before the frozen consensus was captured, so they are treated as already in consensus. The late-October software selloff was sector-wide and not company-specific.