Shopify Inc.
Shortcut
0.47Normalized diluted EPS
+2.9% vs Street
Street
0.46Normalized diluted EPS
November 1 consensus snapshot
Real
0.49Reported normalized EPS
Model download
Explore the assumptions and calculations behind the forecast. This is the agent’s original workbook. Its review didn’t finish, so it hasn’t been checked or repaired.
Shortcut’s reasoning.
Guidance (5-Aug-2026): revenue +low-30s% (consensus range $3,697-3,783m), gross profit +mid-to-high 20s%, opex 33-34% of revenue, SBC $150m, FCF margin high-teens to low-20s.
Shopify beat its revenue-growth guidance range in each of the last 4 quarters (by ~3-6pt) while opex dollars landed near the guided dollars, so gross-profit upside flows to operating income.
Driver build: GMV +32.5% (MS ~33%, buy-side 32-33%, Jefferies third-party data above Street ~30%), payments penetration 68.5%, merchant take rate +8.5bp Y/Y, MRR +19% -> revenue $3,804m (+33.8%), GP $1,825m (48.0% GM).
Non-GAAP OI $705m (vs consensus EBIT $658m); interest income falls to $59m after $1.9bn 1H26 buybacks; 20% non-GAAP tax; 1,291m diluted shares -> non-GAAP EPS $0.473 vs $0.46 consensus.
Starting P(beat) 0.66 from large-cap prior 0.78 and 3/6 strict beats; trimmed 4pt because the $0.47 central estimate sits close to the $0.465 rounding line and T&L/tax have caused recent misses.
On the record.
- Reporting period
- FQ3 2026 (quarter ended 2026-09-30)
- Reporting basis
- non-GAAP (normalized EPS) diluted EPS per Class A/B share, USD
- Consensus snapshot
- November 1, 2026
- Model / effort
- Opus 5.5 · High effort
- Workbook
- Original workbook · review incomplete
Record history
- Forecast generated
- Nov 1, 2026 at 10:55 PM PST
- First posted
- Nov 2, 2026 at 4:10 PM PST
- Result checked
- Nov 3, 2026 at 6:30 AM PST
Result basis
Non-GAAP diluted net income per share attributable to shareholders. GAAP 0.36 remains distinct.