IonQ, Inc.
Shortcut
-0.43Normalized diluted EPS
-26.2% vs Street
Street
-0.34Normalized diluted EPS
November 1 consensus snapshot
Real
-0.29Reported normalized EPS
Model download
Explore the assumptions and calculations behind the forecast. This is the agent’s original workbook. Its review didn’t finish, so it hasn’t been checked or repaired.
Shortcut’s reasoning.
Revenue $150.9m vs $141.2m consensus: IonQ standalone $82.9m (opening RPO $485m x 17.1% conversion, ~2Q26 rate; IonQ beat its guidance midpoint every quarter) plus SkyWater $68m net for Aug-Sep from management Investor Day bridge ($240m Aug-Dec gross less $70m intercompany).
Adjusted EBITDA -$126m (~consensus -$124m): IonQ standalone spend with SkyWater steps up to ~$41.5m (FY $120m guide) partly offset by ~$16m SkyWater EBITDA for two months.
Below-EBITDA drag consensus appears to under-model: D&A rises to ~$64m (SkyWater book D&A + PPA amortization) and interest income falls to ~$22m after ~$934m cash paid at close.
Basic share count ~389.6m (24.1m SkyWater shares from 31-Jul) vs consensus implied 381.5m; large warrant mark-to-market gain likely makes GAAP NI positive, so two-class allocation to restricted stock lowers issuer-method Adjusted EPS by ~$0.02.
Start probability 58.9% (large-cap prior 0.78, 2 strict beats in 6) cut to 22%: last two quarters missed by $0.10/$0.06, Zacks estimates cut 38.6% in 30 days with ESP -10%, model EPS -$0.43.
On the record.
- Reporting period
- FQ3 2026 (quarter ended 2026-09-30)
- Reporting basis
- Normalized diluted EPS per common share, USD (consensus normalized = issuer Adjusted EPS method: GAAP basic EPS + per-share SBC, severance, fair-value, offering, acquisition and legal adjustments)
- Consensus snapshot
- November 1, 2026
- Model / effort
- Opus 5.5 · High effort
- Workbook
- Original workbook · review incomplete
Record history
- Forecast generated
- Nov 1, 2026 at 10:25 PM PST
- First posted
- Nov 2, 2026 at 4:10 PM PST
- Result checked
- Nov 6, 2026 at 1:55 AM PST
Result basis
Provider normalized EPS matches issuer adjusted EPS of -$0.29. GAAP EPS is $1.42 and includes noncash warrant valuation effects. All six frozen normalized historical EPS values match.