The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.

Shortcut’s reasoning.

Anchor: frozen consensus $0.51 (22 est.) / revenue $3,652.7m at 2026-11-01; no quarterly guidance (annual only since Aug-2025); FY27 guide adj. EPS $3.10-3.35, organic +3-5% with H1 > H2, adj. op. margin 12.7-13.5%.

Revenue $3,640m: category build with organic +4.6% (Skin Care +5%, Fragrance +8%, Makeup +2%) and ~0% FX (CNY +6% offset by EUR/JPY/EM weakness); peers L'Oreal Q3 LFL +7.7% (Luxe +5.8%), Puig +5.6%, China cosmetics retail +5% Aug-Sep 2026, Hainan Jul-Aug +4.1%.

Adj. operating margin 9.9% (+257bps y/y) from segment margins plus $10m probability-weighted IEEPA tariff refunds; adj. gross margin 74.0% ex-refunds (UBS 74.3%, VA ~74.0%); implied SG&A 64.4% of sales (-158bps) as PRGP savings ($1.2bn gross) ramp.

Below the line: interest $82m exp./$22m inc., adj. ETR 36% (FY27 guide 33-34% plus seasonal 1Q stock-comp shortfall; 1Q26 was 40.5%), 366.5m diluted shares -> adj. EPS $0.5155; GAAP EPS $0.381 after ~$60m restructuring charges.

P(beat) 0.70: playbook start 0.80 (S&P 500/large cohort 0.78, 5 strict beats in 6 quarters) trimmed because the model sits only ~$0.006 above $0.51 (a beat needs >= $0.52), UBS is at $0.49 and RBC in line; the record of conservative guidance (FY26 initial $1.90-2.10 vs $2.51 actual) keeps the skew positive.