Cipher Digital Inc.

Shortcut’s reasoning.

Normalized basis reverse-engineered: consensus actuals equal issuer legacy Adjusted Earnings / diluted shares in all four recent quarters (0.10, -0.14, -0.19, -0.15), so the forecast keeps bitcoin and Canaan fair-value marks and excludes SBC, D&A, PPA and warrant marks.

Bitcoin rose ~43% in 3Q26 (30-Jun $58.5k to 30-Sep $83.6k): ~$12.2M fair-value gain on the 646 BTC opening treasury (50% assumed sold at the $71.2k quarterly average) plus ~$2.9M Canaan share gain; in the six supplied quarters, CIFR beat when BTC rose and missed when it fell.

Revenue $40.1M vs $37.5M consensus: Odessa mining $25.8M (11.6 EH/s x 3Q hashprice $35.1/PH/day x 69% realization, ~363 BTC) plus first Black Pearl AWS rent $14.3M (42.5 IT MW probability-weighted x 2 months x straight-line rent derived from the Feb-2026 financing deck, plus NNN recoveries).

Costs: cash comp $12M, G&A $15M, mining power $15M; interest expense rises to ~$74.2M (full-quarter Stingray coupon, 2031-convert accretion at 6.89%, ~$20M capitalized) against ~$32.8M interest income on a falling cash balance.

Result: normalized net income -$29.4M / 414.9M shares = -$0.07 vs -$0.16 consensus; GAAP diluted -$0.20 under the company's warrant share-settlement policy, though GAAP net income turns positive (~$114M) on an estimated ~$202M Google-warrant fair-value gain.

Prior: market cap $3.03B (mid) gives cohort prior 0.70; b=2 strict beats in n=6, so starting p=(8x0.70+2)/14=0.54; raised to 0.75 on quarter-specific BTC/Canaan marks and a consensus mean (-0.16) below the median (-0.11). Main risks: undisclosed Black Pearl MW, BTC sale timing, capitalized interest and one-off costs.