Cardinal Health, Inc.

Shortcut’s reasoning.

FY27 guide ($12.40-$12.60) plus Q4-call cadence (Pharma Q1 profit growth near high end of 8%-11%, GMPD ~half of 1Q26, Other +15%-18%, 19%-20% tax, ~233m shares) implies ~$2.96 for 1Q27; consensus $2.94 sits on it.

Track record argues for a modest tilt above guidance: FY26 guidance raised three times (adjusted $10.95 vs $9.40 initial midpoint) and consensus normalized EPS beat in 6 of 6 quarters by an average $0.24.

Model: Pharma profit +13% to $754m (Solaris in base until 2Q lap, brand-to-generic/specialty), Other +15% to $191m, GMPD $23m, corporate -$29m, interest & other $62m, 19.5% tax, 233.8m diluted shares -> $3.00 normalized EPS (+1.9% vs consensus).

Post-quarter signals were supportive: FY27 guidance reaffirmed on 1-Oct-2026 after the quarter closed (CVS renewal); Cencora raised its Sep-quarter-ending FY26 guide on U.S. distribution strength (21-Oct-2026).

Revenue modeled below consensus at $66.3bn (+3.5% Y/Y): IRA WAC changes (~-5pts), moderating GLP-1 (+3pts) and a tough 1Q26 comp (+23%); CAH missed consensus revenue consensus in 4 of the last 6 quarters.

Risks: GMPD fuel/commodity and tariff costs, tax-rate timing, buyback timing and normalization of FY26 outsized demand.