Astera Labs, Inc.
Shortcut
1.26Normalized diluted EPS
+5.6% vs Street
Street
1.19Normalized diluted EPS
November 1 consensus snapshot
Real
1.32Reported normalized EPS
Model download
Explore the assumptions and calculations behind the forecast. This is the agent’s original workbook. Its review didn’t finish, so it hasn’t been checked or repaired.
Shortcut’s reasoning.
Guidance 3Q26: revenue $540-560m, non-GAAP GM ~72%, opex $156-160m, ~$12m other income, 12% tax, 185m shares => $1.16-1.21; consensus $1.19 sits at the $1.185 midpoint.
Issuer beat its revenue-guide midpoint in all six 2025-26 quarters (+4.2% to +11.7%, avg +8.4%) and non-GAAP EPS consensus by $0.05-0.12 each quarter; model assumes only +4.0% on revenue because the 40% Q/Q step-up rests on one Scorpio X program (AWS Trainium 3).
Quarter evidence: Scorpio X confirmed in volume production at Citi TMT (Sep 9); AWS 3Q26 capex ~$76-77bn and AWS growth 39%; Wiwynn Sep-26 sales +100% Y/Y. Offsets: Microsoft cited third-party AI-chip delays; GM drifting toward 70% with module/switch mix.
Margin build: 72.5% non-GAAP GM (guide 72%, historical GM beats 0.7-2.4pts) and $163m non-GAAP opex (opex has run above the guide high end four quarters running), 12% tax => non-GAAP NI ~$232m, EPS ~$1.26 on ~185m diluted shares.
GAAP: SBC ~$79.8m and 4% guided GAAP tax rate => GAAP EPS ~$0.96 (guide $0.87-0.92); GAAP tax is the most volatile line.
Beat probability: large-cap prior 0.78 (mkt cap ~$44.9bn, not in S&P 500), 6/6 historical beats => starting p 0.874; trimmed to 0.85 for single-program concentration and consensus already at guide midpoint.
On the record.
- Reporting period
- FQ3 2026 (quarter ended 2026-09-30)
- Reporting basis
- non-GAAP (issuer-defined; = normalized EPS) diluted EPS per common share, USD
- Consensus snapshot
- November 1, 2026
- Model / effort
- Opus 5.5 · High effort
- Workbook
- Original workbook · review incomplete
Record history
- Forecast generated
- Nov 1, 2026 at 10:57 PM PST
- First posted
- Nov 2, 2026 at 4:10 PM PST
- Result checked
- Nov 3, 2026 at 7:45 PM PST
Result basis
Provider normalized EPS 1.32 agrees with issuer non-GAAP diluted EPS 1.32, distinct from GAAP diluted EPS 0.99 and basic EPS 1.05. Issuer non-GAAP net income is 243.400 million USD and diluted weighted-average common shares are 184.077 million. All six frozen normalized historical actuals match; no surprise backsolve, substitute consensus, share-unit conversion or invented adjustment bridge.