ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation
Shortcut
4.14Normalized diluted EPS
+2.7% vs Street
Street
4.03Normalized diluted EPS
October 25 consensus snapshot
Real
4.23ExxonMobil issuer adjusted diluted EPS
Model download
Explore the assumptions and calculations behind the forecast.
Shortcut’s reasoning.
ExxonMobil's 16-Oct-2026 8-K quantified 3Q26 vs 2Q26 market/planned impacts: refining and product margins +$4.4B (Energy Products +$4.5B), liquids prices -$1.3B, gas +$0.3B, maintenance +$0.2B, day effect +$0.3B, external impacts -$0.6B and other factors -$0.9B, i.e. +$2.4B on 2Q26 adjusted earnings of $14.68B.
Segment bridges plus Corporate & Financing at -$0.8B and a +$69M operating-performance residual (median of actual vs 8-K factor midpoints over 3Q25-2Q26) give adjusted earnings of $17.14B; divided by the company's ~4,140M diluted-share estimate this is $4.14 adjusted EPS vs frozen consensus $4.03.
The consensus snapshot (18-Oct) was only two days after the 8-K; post-8-K sell-side views ($4.10 implied by one bank's read of the 8-K, UBS $4.14, MarketBeat consensus $4.10 on 23-Oct) cluster near the factor-implied figure, so the frozen consensus looks stale rather than informed about a miss.
On the record.
- Reporting period
- Q3 2026 (FQ3 2026 - Sep 2026; quarter ended 2026-09-30, calendar fiscal year)
- Reporting basis
- consensus data-normalized diluted EPS
- Consensus snapshot
- October 25, 2026
- Model / effort
- Opus 5.5 · High effort
- Workbook
- Reviewed workbook
Record history
- Forecast generated
- Oct 26, 2026 at 6:39 AM PDT
- Reviewed revision completed
- Oct 26, 2026 at 6:39 AM PDT
- First published
- Oct 26, 2026 at 11:01 AM PDT
Result basis
The issuer full Results Summary explicitly reports adjusted earnings per common share 4.23 and GAAP 3.72. The footnote states assumes dilution. The issuer adjustment definition excludes significant identified items and estimated timing effects, matching the existing forecast target convention. Current-quarter 2Q2026 adjusted comparative 3.52 matches frozenhistory. No timing amount is added back again. The full reconciliation and original BusinessWire link 20261030473047 are preserved in the browser evidence. The SEC feed still lagged and VM HTTPfetch 403 is recorded, not treated as result absence or a successful raw fetch.