United Parcel Service, Inc.
Shortcut
1.64Normalized diluted EPS
+1.1% vs Street
Street
1.62Normalized diluted EPS
October 25 consensus snapshot
Real
1.69Issuer adjusted diluted EPS
Model download
Explore the assumptions and calculations behind the forecast.
Shortcut’s reasoning.
Segment build on 2Q26-call guidance: U.S. Domestic ADV -4.5% Y/Y with RPP +6.7% (fuel surcharges at record diesel/jet prices) -> revenue $14.50bn; International +5.7% ($4.94bn); SCS +11.6% ($2.82bn); total $22.25bn vs $22.28bn consensus.
Adjusted operating profit $1.99bn (8.95%): U.S. Domestic 7.15% on a 90bp RPP-over-CPP spread (guide ~7%, 2Q26 8.0%, typical ~60bp 2Q-to-3Q step-down), International 13.4% (guide 13-14%, Sep jet-fuel spike), SCS 10.4%.
Below the line: other expense -$181m (higher interest after Aug-2026 notes), adjusted tax rate 23.0% (1H26 22.8%), 851.5m diluted shares with no buybacks -> normalized EPS $1.64 vs $1.62 consensus; +13.8% vs $1.44 3Q25 ex-sale-leaseback, consistent with management mid-teens framing.
On the record.
- Reporting period
- Q3 2026 (FQ3 2026 - Sep 2026; quarter ended 2026-09-30)
- Reporting basis
- consensus data-normalized adjusted diluted EPS
- Consensus snapshot
- October 25, 2026
- Model / effort
- Opus 5.5 · High effort
- Workbook
- Reviewed workbook
Record history
- Forecast generated
- Oct 26, 2026 at 11:35 AM PDT
- Reviewed revision completed
- Oct 26, 2026 at 11:35 AM PDT
- First published
- Oct 26, 2026 at 12:27 PM PDT
Result basis
UPS reports adjusted diluted EPS of $1.69, versus $1.37 GAAP, for the quarter ended September 30. Scoring retains the adjusted EPS convention specified in the published forecast.