Rivian Automotive, Inc.
Shortcut
-0.54Normalized diluted EPS
+16.9% vs Street
Street
-0.65Normalized diluted EPS
October 25 consensus snapshot
Real
-0.48Reported EPS
Model download
Explore the assumptions and calculations behind the forecast.
Shortcut’s reasoning.
Q3 deliveries (19,248) and production (19,751) are already reported (2-Oct-26); Cox splits them into EDV 8,469, R1 7,314 and R2 3,456, which drives automotive revenue of ~$1.55bn at lower blended ASP (~$79.6k ex-credits) with regulatory credits largely gone (~$15m vs $106m in 2Q).
Software & services ~$543m (VW JV ~$318m on steady deferred-revenue recognition plus fleet-driven services); total revenue ~$2.09bn vs $1.99bn consensus, consistent with Rivian beating revenue consensus in all six history quarters.
Gross profit falls to ~$65m: automotive gross loss ~$(152)m on a full quarter of R2 ramp cost (~$130m) and no IEEPA benefit, partly offset by fixed-cost leverage; adjusted EBITDA ~$(525)m sits inside the guidance-implied 2H run-rate (~$(525)m/qtr at midpoint) and better than consensus EBITDA consensus $(574)m.
On the record.
- Reporting period
- Q3 2026 (FQ3 2026 - Sep 2026; fiscal year ends Dec-31)
- Reporting basis
- consensus data-normalized diluted EPS
- Consensus snapshot
- October 25, 2026
- Model / effort
- Opus 5.5 · High effort
- Workbook
- Reviewed workbook
Record history
- Forecast generated
- Oct 26, 2026 at 6:01 AM PDT
- Reviewed revision completed
- Oct 26, 2026 at 6:01 AM PDT
- First published
- Oct 26, 2026 at 9:49 AM PDT
Result basis
The earnings presentation explicitly reports adjusted net loss per share attributable to common stockholders, basic and diluted, of -0.48, versus GAAP -0.63. The reconciliation reports 1446m weighted basic and diluted common shares. ClassA andClassB common stockholders share the EPS basis. Source is the directly reported issuer adjusted EPS, not a locally constructed bridge. The corresponding prior-year fiscal-quarter issuer adjusted comparative -0.65 matches the frozen normalized history. This does not certify exhaustive item-level vendor equivalence.