Merck & Co., Inc.
Shortcut
2.11Normalized diluted EPS
+1.0% vs Street
Street
2.09Normalized diluted EPS
October 25 consensus snapshot
Real
2.49Merck issuer non-GAAP diluted EPS
Model download
Explore the assumptions and calculations behind the forecast.
Shortcut’s reasoning.
Bottom-up product build lands revenue at $17.33bn (consensus $17.35bn): KEYTRUDA family $8.38bn (+2.9% Y/Y against ~$250m 3Q25 wholesaler benefit; QLEX ~8.6% share per UBS WAC data), Gardasil $1.64bn, WINREVAIR $0.64bn, OHTUVAYRE unwind to $150m, U.S. Januvia/Janumet generics.
Non-GAAP P&L follows FY26 guidance math: gross margin 80.7% (guide ~81%, inventory reserves), underlying opex ~$7.05bn consistent with the 2H26 opex implied by the $42.0-42.7bn range, other expense $380m (Terns financing), tax 15.2%.
Includes the $400m (~$0.13/share) SciBrunch upfront charge announced 28-Sep-2026, which Merck books in both GAAP and non-GAAP; consensus (2.09, 18-Oct) largely reflects it (Guggenheim cut to $2.08).
On the record.
- Reporting period
- Q3 2026 (FQ3 2026, quarter ended Sep 30, 2026)
- Reporting basis
- consensus data-normalized diluted EPS
- Consensus snapshot
- October 25, 2026
- Model / effort
- Opus 5.5 · High effort
- Workbook
- Reviewed workbook
Record history
- Forecast generated
- Oct 26, 2026 at 6:01 AM PDT
- Reviewed revision completed
- Oct 26, 2026 at 6:01 AM PDT
- First published
- Oct 26, 2026 at 9:44 AM PDT
Result basis
Non-GAAP EPS includes the one-time SciBrunch global-license charge of $0.12 per share, as does GAAP EPS. The original forecast explicitly included the $400m charge once. The actual is not adjusted again to exclude that charge. The issuer reconciliation reports GAAP 2.04 plus a 0.45 bridge to non-GAAP 2.49. The issuer Q3 2025 adjusted comparative 2.58 matches the frozen normalized history for that quarter. This check does not claim exhaustive item-level vendor definition equivalence.