Mastercard Incorporated
Shortcut
5.21Normalized diluted EPS
+0.8% vs Street
Street
5.17Normalized diluted EPS
October 25 consensus snapshot
Real
5.31Mastercard issuer adjusted diluted EPS
Model download
Explore the assumptions and calculations behind the forecast.
Shortcut’s reasoning.
Guidance (2Q26 call, 2026-07-30): 3Q26 net revenue growth at the high end of low double digits currency-neutral ex-inorganic, ~0.5ppt FX headwind, minimal inorganic; opex growth low double digits plus 0.5ppt BVNK; other expense ~$125m; tax 20-21%. Guidance-implied EPS ≈ $5.05.
Track record: revenue beat guided growth by ~1-2ppt in 4Q25, 1Q26 and 2Q26; other income/expense beat guide by $22-50m in 1Q26/2Q26; tax landed at low end. Model uses ~13.0% currency-neutral organic growth, other expense −$115m and a 20.3% tax rate.
Intra-quarter evidence: July metrics 'relatively stable and strong' (2Q26 call), August in line with July (CFO, 2026-09-10); US retail sales +5.5% Y/Y Jul-Sep (Census); Amex 3Q26 billed business +8%; EUR/USD Jul-Sep average ~1.151 vs ~1.17 a year ago supports the FX headwind.
On the record.
- Reporting period
- Q3 2026 (FQ3 2026 - Sep 2026; quarter ended 2026-09-30; fiscal year = calendar year)
- Reporting basis
- Normalized (Mastercard adjusted) diluted EPS
- Consensus snapshot
- October 25, 2026
- Model / effort
- Opus 5.5 · High effort
- Workbook
- Reviewed workbook
Record history
- Forecast generated
- Oct 26, 2026 at 3:45 AM PDT
- Reviewed revision completed
- Oct 26, 2026 at 3:45 AM PDT
- First published
- Oct 26, 2026 at 5:12 AM PDT
Result basis
The issuer quarterly reconciliation directly reports adjusted non-GAAP diluted EPS 5.31 versus GAAP 5.28. It excludes equity-investment gains/losses and litigation provisions. The diluted-share statement uses 876m weighted shares, versus 875m basic. This is the USD diluted common-share comparison already specified in the accepted forecast. Currency-neutral growth rates are separate and are not substituted for as-adjusted EPS. The issuer Q3 2025 adjusted comparative 4.38 matches the frozen normalized history for that quarter. This check does not claim exhaustive item-level vendor definition equivalence.