HCA Healthcare, Inc.
Shortcut
6.69Normalized diluted EPS
+0.9% vs Street
Street
6.63Normalized diluted EPS
October 25 consensus snapshot
Real
7.22Issuer as-adjusted diluted EPS
Model download
Explore the assumptions and calculations behind the forecast.
Shortcut’s reasoning.
HCA guides annually: Jul-14-26 FY26 midpoints (EPS $29.60, Adj. EBITDA $15.75bn) less 1H26 actuals imply ~$7.92bn 2H26 EBITDA; with management's stated cadence (4Q growth > 3Q growth; 3Q laps 3Q25 state supplemental retro receipts) 3Q26 Adj. EBITDA is modelled at ~$3.75bn (-3.2% Y/Y) vs consensus $3.74bn.
Revenue ~$19.31bn (+0.8% Y/Y) built by payer: equivalent admissions +2.2%; Medicaid -5% (lapping 3Q25 retro payments, partly offset by ~$196m/qtr Florida DPP run-rate); managed care -1% as exchange volumes (-15%) migrate ~1:1 to uninsured; Medicare +5%.
Costs: salaries and supplies per equivalent admission -0.5% Y/Y (2Q26 -0.7%/-1.0% under the resiliency program); other opex 22.0% of revenue including ongoing Florida provider tax.
On the record.
- Reporting period
- Q3 2026 (FQ3 2026 - Sep 2026; quarter ended 2026-09-30)
- Reporting basis
- Normalized (HCA as-adjusted) diluted EPS
- Consensus snapshot
- October 25, 2026
- Model / effort
- Opus 5.5 · High effort
- Workbook
- Reviewed workbook
Record history
- Forecast generated
- Oct 26, 2026 at 4:32 AM PDT
- Reviewed revision completed
- Oct 26, 2026 at 4:32 AM PDT
- First published
- Oct 26, 2026 at 5:12 AM PDT
Result basis
HCA reports as-adjusted diluted EPS of $7.22, excluding the $0.05 gain on facility sales; GAAP diluted EPS was $7.27. This is the as-adjusted convention specified in the published forecast.