BP / Q3 2026 (FQ3 2026 - Sep 2026; quarter ended 30-Sep-2026)

BP p.l.c.

Reported: Oct 30, 2026

Forecast published

Oct 26, 2026 at 8:36 PM PDT

Opus 5.5 High in Shortcut

Shortcut

0.4876

Normalized basic EPS

+1.6% vs Street

Off by $0.0561 per share

Street

0.4800

Normalized basic EPS

October 25 consensus snapshot

Off by $0.0637 per share

Real

0.5437

BP issuer underlying replacement-cost BASIC EPS, USD per ordinary share

Shortcut win

Reported result · Oct 30 ↗ · The issuer RNS financial summary explicitly reports Q32026 underlying replacement-cost profit per ordinary share 54.37 UScents, recorded as USD0.5437 by unit conversion only.

USD per basic ordinary share (six ordinary shares per ADS). Comparisons use unrounded estimates.

Model download

Explore the assumptions and calculations behind the forecast.

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Shortcut’s reasoning.

bp 3Q26 trading statement (13-Oct-26, before the 18-Oct consensus capture) quantified the quarter: refining margin +$1.9-2.1bn, G&LCE realizations +$0.1-0.3bn, OP&O realizations -$0.2-0.4bn, gas trading significantly higher, customers significantly lower, underlying ETR ~30%.

Segment bridge from 2Q26A gives underlying RC PBIT $12.44bn (G&LCE $2.88bn, OP&O $3.48bn, C&P $6.33bn, OB&C -$0.25bn); after finance costs, 30% tax and $0.4bn NCI, underlying RC profit $7.59bn.

Cross-check: model cash flow gives 3Q26E net debt $14.2bn, inside the guided $13.5-14.5bn; post-statement broker net income estimates cluster at $6.9-7.6bn (UBS $7.5bn, RBC $7.6bn, Citi $6.9bn).

On the record.

Reporting period: Q3 2026 (FQ3 2026 - Sep 2026; quarter ended 30-Sep-2026)
Reporting basis: BP underlying replacement-cost normalized BASIC EPS, USD per ordinary share, six ordinary shares per ADS
Consensus snapshot: October 25, 2026
Model / effort: Opus 5.5 · High effort
Workbook: Reviewed workbook

Record history

Forecast generated: Oct 26, 2026 at 5:27 PM PDT
Reviewed revision completed: Oct 26, 2026 at 5:27 PM PDT
First published: Oct 26, 2026 at 8:36 PM PDT

Result basis

The issuer RNS financial summary explicitly reports Q32026 underlying replacement-cost profit per ordinary share 54.37 UScents, recorded as USD0.5437 by unit conversion only. Underlying RC profit is 8458m and basic weighted shares 15555241thousand, versus 15710351thousand diluted. The accepted normalized convention is BASIC ordinary-share EPS. Issuer reported GAAP basic 30.19cents/USD0.3019 and diluted 29.89cents remain separate. USD3.26 underlying RC per ADS is the six-ordinary-share ADS measure and is NOT scored against the ordinary-share forecast/Street. The issuer Q32025 underlying ordinary-share 14.24cents rounds to the frozen 0.14 history, while 2Q2026 36.92cents rounds to frozen 0.37. Source precision is preserved at four dollar decimals, not replaced by an ADS-derived calculation.