USB / Q3 2026 (quarter ended September 30, 2026)

U.S. Bancorp

Reported 2026-10-15

Published forecast

Oct 12, 2026, 2:36 AM PDT

Opus 5.5 High in Shortcut

Shortcut

1.34

Shortcut normalized EPS

+0.8% vs Street*

Street

1.33

Street normalized EPS

Frozen October 11 snapshot

Real

1.34

Reported diluted EPS

Shortcut win

Shortcut off by $0.00 · Street off by $0.01.

Uses reported diluted EPS of $1.34. The forecast excludes modeled securities losses and integration costs, so matching normalization adjustments remain unverified. This score compares the unchanged published estimates directly with reported EPS.

Issuer earnings release ↗

USD per diluted share

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Open the assumptions and calculations behind this earnings forecast.

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Model note: EPS includes integration-cost and securities-loss add-backs worth about $0.014/share each.

Behind the estimate.

The model forecasts $1.34 per diluted share for the quarter ended September 30, 2026.

Forecast and independent review: Opus 5.5 High in Shortcut.

Model assumptions and review notes

Modeled normalized EPS; comparability with the frozen Street definition remains unconfirmed. The score compares published values directly.
F1: exclusion of BTIG integration costs unconfirmed; ex-integration EPS 1.3261 (-0.0144) = in-line at $1.33; CapIQ-implied like-for-like 1.3276. Decides beat vs in-line.
F1/IS J172: whether the ~$30mm integration cost is embedded in modeled expense I172; if not, normalized EPS overstated by 0.0144.
F2: add-back of assumed $30mm 3Q26 securities loss (2 of 3 testable quarters support); -0.0144 if not.
F3: adjustment tax rate 25% vs 20% (+0.0019 at 20%).
F5: 9M25 CF line holding FX offset unidentified; 3Q25/4Q25 FX rows residual (no EPS effect).
F6: 3Q26E preferred dividend cash timing (cash only).
F7: Amazon NII attribution 32 vs build-implied 14.7 in M&A decomposition (no EPS effect).
Calibration -0.17 judgmental P(beat) adjustment preserved (no EPS effect).
Retrieval-timing limitation: sources published before the 2026-10-11T22:24:20Z cutoff but retrieved later; documented manifest limitation, not a post-cutoff source.
Normalized comparator basis (F-01): recognition of the $30mm BTIG integration and $30mm securities-loss add-backs is unconfirmed. Comparable range is $1.3117 to $1.3406; either add-back alone gives $1.3261, below the $1.33 consensus. Sensitivity is -$0.0144 per add-back.
Tax rate on adjustments (F-02): 25% versus a 20% ETR changes EPS by +$0.0019.
Amazon $160mm day-1 reserve build stays in normalized EPS. The frozen EBT excl. exceptional is only $6.7mm above GAAP, which is consistent with the pool not excluding it. If excluded it, the comparable would be +160 x 0.75 / 1,559 = +$0.0770.
Preferred dividends 3Q26E = 104 is a pattern-based assumption. Each $1mm changes EPS by -$0.00064, and 108 (the 3Q25 level) would give $1.3380.
Cover C22 uses net_income_excl_excep. Whether its basis is to common or to total NI is not stated in the source. It is display-only and does not affect EPS.
Amazon NII memo attribution (32 vs 14.7) and historical cash-flow FX residuals remain unreconciled, with no EPS effect.
Market cap is externally sourced (S20, pre-cutoff) because the market_cap_usd_m field is blank. The bucket classification is robust: about 8.9x the $10bn threshold, plus the S&P 500 flag.

On the record.

Reporting period: Q3 2026 (quarter ended September 30, 2026), ended 2026-09-30
Reporting basis: Normalized diluted EPS per common share, USD = (GAAP NI to common I203 + securities losses I219 + BTIG integration I220 - 25% tax effect I223) / diluted shares I209 (Share Count I31). Model basis; treatment of integration costs and 3Q26 securities losses unconfirmed.
Published: Oct 12, 2026, 2:36 AM PDT
Model / effort: Opus 5.5 · High effort

Original forecasts, models and publication times remain on the record.

Research sources