PGR / Q3 2026 (quarter ended September 30, 2026)

Progressive

Reported 2026-10-14

Published forecast

Oct 12, 2026, 2:19 AM PDT

Opus 5.5 High in Shortcut

Shortcut

4.57

Shortcut normalized EPS

+5.2% vs Street*

Street

4.35

Street normalized EPS

Frozen October 11 snapshot

Real

4.60

Adjusted diluted EPS excluding investment gains/losses

Shortcut win

Shortcut off by $0.03 · Street off by $0.25.

Uses adjusted EPS of $4.60 versus $4.37 GAAP. Adding back $170 million of securities losses after 21% tax across 582.2 million diluted shares matches the forecast’s stated normalization approach. Exact adjustments remain independently unverified; the score compares published values.

Issuer earnings release ↗

USD per diluted share

Explore the model.

Open the assumptions and calculations behind this earnings forecast.

Open in Shortcut ↗Download XLSX ↓

Model note: July and August are reported actuals; September is forecast. Cash-flow and balance-sheet schedules remain partial scenarios, and exceptional-item treatment is an assumption.

Behind the estimate.

The quarterly forecast combines reported July and August earnings with an estimate for September. The final workbook models $4.57 normalized EPS per diluted share; the October 14 monthly release is expected to include the quarter totals.

The normalized bridge removes net realized investment gains at a 21% tax rate. That treatment matches the supplied historical EPS closely, but normalization of new exceptional items remains uncertain.

Forecast and independent review: Opus 5.5 High in Shortcut.

Model assumptions and review notes

Modeled normalized EPS; comparability with the frozen Street definition remains unconfirmed. The score compares published values directly.
F1: target-quarter normalized treatment of one-offs unconfirmed; bridge reproduces 3Q25–2Q26 within $0.0034. A non-excluded $100m pretax Florida accrual ≈ −$0.135/sh.
Sep-26E judgmental assumptions retained: ±1pt Sep companywide CR ≈ ∓$0.097/sh (cushion vs 4.35 exhausted ≈ +2.3pt); ±$10m inv. income ≈ ±$0.0135; ±1pt tax ≈ ∓$0.017; ±0.5m Sep basic shares ≈ ∓$0.0013.
CFO: 3Q26E operating_cash_flow unavailable; CFS!H25 is a scoped partial scenario (alt. ≈ 3,720 with Sep receivables build); needs September balances not available pre-cutoff.
FY24 property cats: exact value within 740.8–743.8 unresolved (no primary dollar figure); historical only.
F2: cohort-prior provenance (Playbook v2) and post-cutoff market-cap retrieval without snapshot.
F6: 10-K goal wording for 2025-03-03 not cached (date itself sourced).
F10: generic multi-source row provenance in Inputs!N10:N178.
Source timing: web sources retrieved after cutoff (publication dates precede it); S17, S18, S27, S30 lack pre-cutoff capture timestamps.
Monthly Build!F151 hard-coded Sep basic shares (frozen assumption; linking ≈ −$0.0001 EPS).

On the record.

Reporting period: Q3 2026 (quarter ended September 30, 2026), ended 2026-09-30
Reporting basis: S&P normalized diluted EPS per common share, USD (GAAP diluted EPS excluding net realized gains/losses on securities taxed at 21%; Florida policyholder credits not excluded)
Published: Oct 12, 2026, 2:19 AM PDT
Model / effort: Opus 5.5 · High effort

Original forecasts, models and publication times remain on the record.

Research sources