JPMorgan Chase
Oct 11, 2026, 11:13 PM PDT
Shortcut
5.92Shortcut normalized EPS
-0.4% vs Street*
Street
5.94Street normalized EPS
Frozen October 11 snapshot
Real
5.75Issuer EPS excluding the significant securities-loss item
Shortcut win
Shortcut off by $0.17 · Street off by $0.19.
Scored against issuer EPS of $5.75 excluding securities losses ($5.57 GAAP). The original forecast and frozen Street estimate are unchanged; their exact normalization adjustments are not independently matched.
Issuer earnings release ↗Explore the model.
Open the assumptions and calculations behind this earnings forecast.
Behind the estimate.
The model combines net interest income anchored to management guidance with stronger investment-banking fees and trading revenue. Higher compensation and credit provisions offset part of that growth.
A 23% tax rate and fewer diluted shares after buybacks produce $5.92 EPS. The estimate retains the disclosed Visa mark and securities-loss assumptions.
Forecast and independent review: Opus 5.5 High in Shortcut.
Model assumptions and review notes
- Model retains an approximately $109m Visa Class C mark using an unverified holding proxy and a $75m securities loss. Provider normalization policy for these items remains unresolved.
- The Visa Class C mark uses an approximate holding value. The model retains a $109m mark and a $75m securities loss. Their treatment in Street normalized EPS has not been confirmed.
- Some trading-revenue allocations and balance-sheet movements are judgmental estimates rather than independently sourced forecasts.
On the record.
- Reporting period
- Q3 2026 (FQ3 2026, quarter ended 2026-09-30), ended 2026-09-30
- Reporting basis
- Forecast normalized diluted EPS with explicit assumed treatment of Visa Class C mark and securities losses; provider normalization match unresolved
- Published
- Oct 11, 2026, 11:13 PM PDT
- Model / effort
- Opus 5.5 · High effort
Original forecasts, models and publication times remain on the record.
Research sources
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/19617/000162828026048078/a2q26erfex992supplement.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/19617/000162828026001902/a4q25erfex992supplement.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/19617/000162828025044845/a3q25erfex992supplement.htm
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/19617/000162828026048078/a2q26erfexhibit991narrative.htm
- https://www.jpmorganchase.com/content/dam/jpmc/jpmorgan-chase-and-co/investor-relations/documents/quarterly-earnings/2026/2nd-quarter/2Q26-earnings-transcript.pdf
- https://www.jpmorganchase.com/content/dam/jpmc/jpmorgan-chase-and-co/investor-relations/documents/quarterly-earnings/2026/2nd-quarter/9e8f3cef-bd2a-4140-b50f-83c4fba3f23c.pdf
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/19617/000162828026054343/jpm-20260630.htm
- https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyconcept/CIK0000019617/us-gaap/NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities.json
- https://www.jpmorganchase.com/content/dam/jpmc/jpmorgan-chase-and-co/investor-relations/documents/events/2026/jpmc-to-present-at-the-barclays-global-financial-services-conference/jpm-at-the-barclays-global-financial-services-conference.pdf
- https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/jpmorgan-expects-investment-banking-trading-to-shine-in-third-quarter-4902609
- https://www.jpmorganchase.com/content/dam/jpmc/jpmorgan-chase-and-co/investor-relations/documents/quarterly-earnings/2025/4th-quarter/jpm-4q25-earnings-call-transcript.pdf
- https://www.jpmorganchase.com/content/dam/jpmc/jpmorgan-chase-and-co/investor-relations/documents/quarterly-earnings/2026/1st-quarter/1q26-earnings-transcript.pdf
- https://www.marketscreener.com/news/jpmorgan-expects-its-q3-investment-banking-revenue-to-grow-in-low-double-digits-ce7d59dcd981f327
- https://earningscalls.dev/transcripts/jpmorgan-chase-and-co_jpm_earnings_call_transcript_2025-12-09
- https://www.marketscreener.com/news/trading-surge-helped-by-spacex-ipo-seen-lifting-wall-st-banks-second-quarter-earnings-ce7f5edbd089f121
- https://intellectia.ai/stock/JPM/earnings/earning-forecast-2025-10-14
- https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm
- https://usmarketcurrent.com/q3-2026-scorecard-sp-500-up-2-russell-2000-down-7-5-energy-led-utilities-fell-13-10-year-up-87bp/
- https://cetera.com/files/market-insights/cim-quarterly-recap-3q-2026.pdf-0
- https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/v/history/
- https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/jpm/statistics/
- https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/jpmorgan-chase-co-jpm-q3-121521889.html
- https://seekingalpha.com/article/4953114-jpmorgan-citigroup-bac-earnings-previews-eventually-return-to-more-normal-growth
- https://www.marketbeat.com/earnings/reports/2026-10-13-jpmorgan-chase-co-stock/
- https://www.marketpulse.com/markets/jpmorgan-q3-earnings-preview-can-strong-banking-momentum-continue/
- https://www.hudson-labs.com/research/jpmorgan-q3-2026-earnings-preview-revenue-guidance-outlook
- https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/bank-america-ceo-sees-least-10-drop-q3-investment-banking-fees-2026-09-14/
- https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/jefferies-q3-ib-equities-offset-142600124.html
- https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-july-31-2026
- https://www.statmuse.com/money/ask/jpm-mkt-cap
- https://www.jpmorganchase.com/ir/news/2026/jpmc-to-host-third-quarter-2026-earnings-call
- https://www.xxquant.com/en/institution/institutional-research/7f60c8800d6219a17f0e1724355da1ce