← All forecasts · October 12–16, 2026

FHN / Q3 2026 (quarter ended September 30, 2026)

First Horizon

Reported 2026-10-15

Published forecast

Oct 12, 2026, 2:36 AM PDT

Opus 5.5 High in Shortcut

Shortcut

0.53

Shortcut normalized EPS

+2.4% vs Street*

Street

0.52

Street normalized EPS

Frozen October 11 snapshot

Real

0.53

Issuer adjusted diluted EPS

Shortcut win

Shortcut off by $0.00 · Street off by $0.01.

Uses adjusted EPS of $0.53, excluding $0.73 per share of notable items, primarily mortgage-sale charges (GAAP loss of $0.20). The score compares published values; exact adjustment matching remains unverified.

Issuer earnings release ↗

USD per diluted share

Explore the model.

Open the assumptions and calculations behind this earnings forecast.

FHN reviewed earnings model
Open in Shortcut ↗Download XLSX ↓

Model note: Average-balance and preferred-dividend assumptions carry about $0.010/share combined sensitivity. See review notes for the EPS adjustment basis.

Behind the estimate.

The model forecasts $0.53 per diluted share for the quarter ended September 30, 2026.

Forecast and independent review: Opus 5.5 High in Shortcut.

Model assumptions and review notes
  • Modeled normalized EPS; comparability with the frozen Street definition remains unconfirmed. The score compares published values directly.
  • F02 average balances vs BS endpoint midpoints: NII -3.18m, adj. EPS -$0.0052 (~$0.527). Judgmental original assumption retained.
  • F01 comparator basis: computed adjusted EPS gaps avg +0.29c, max +0.58c vs reported, all inside rounding. A 2Q26-sized bias gives ~$0.5265. normalized equals issuer adjusted EPS 6/6.
  • F01/r5-F06 comparability: whether normalizes the 5m Visa expected-value notable is unconfirmed. If not, the comparable figure is the GAAP-like $0.5241 (-$0.0082).
  • F09 Series H timing: -$0.0021 per $1m; -$0.0044 (~$0.5279) if the 2.1m stub fell in 3Q26.
  • F03 consolidated incentives flat vs Wholesale pass-through: -$0.0009 if mirrored.
  • F08 size bucket uses mixed-date market cap; playbook priors and S&P flag unverifiable in the workbook. P(beat) only (mid bucket would give 0.675).
  • F06 dividends paid = declared (cash plug ~+2.4m); F05 CCW residual in Corporate. Supporting lines only, no EPS effect.
  • Sources retrieval dates (2026-10-12, date precision) post-date the cutoff; all publication dates are on or before 2026-10-11. This is a documented limitation, not a post-cutoff source.
  • Theme-font tagging (Arial + scheme minor) on ~514 cells is pre-existing; Excel rendering not verified.
  • Average-balance inputs vs balance-sheet midpoints (F01): EPS sensitivity −$0.0052, retained as judgment.
  • Series H first-period dividend timing (F02): −$0.0044 if the stub falls in 3Q26; needs S13 or 2Q26 release confirmation.
  • Normalized comparator rounding bias (F03): up to −$0.0058; a basis-level, not definitional, uncertainty.
  • Incentive pass-through mirroring (F04): −$0.0009.
  • Share weighting and buyback timing (F05): −$0.00112 per +1m diluted shares.
  • Combined: the F01, F02 and F04 judgment downsides take adj. EPS to about $0.5218. This is below the $0.525 level needed to print $0.53 against $0.52 consensus, which bears on the 0.72 beat probability (unchanged here).
  • Market cap and size bucket are self-computed from mixed dates (F12). The classification is robust within the evidence but is not CapIQ-sourced.
  • Cash-flow paid-vs-declared dividends and the partial forecast OCF (F06, F07): no EPS dependency.
  • Post-cutoff retrieval dates (F13): content stability unverifiable.

On the record.

Reporting period
Q3 2026 (quarter ended September 30, 2026), ended 2026-09-30
Reporting basis
Adjusted (non-GAAP) diluted EPS per common share, USD, treated as equal to normalized diluted EPS. 'Income Statement'!H118 = H114 = H111/H91. Net income attribution: H77 265.001 - NCI H78 4 - preferred H83 10.95 = GAAP NIAC H85 250.051; + notables H107 5 - tax H108 1.1125 + deemed preferred H109 0 = adjusted NIAC H111 253.938; / diluted shares H91 477.067 (Share Count H35). USD reporter; no ADR or FX.
Published
Oct 12, 2026, 2:36 AM PDT
Model / effort
Opus 5.5 · High effort

Original forecasts, models and publication times remain on the record.

Research sources