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BNY / Q3 2026 (quarter ended September 30, 2026)

BNY Mellon

Reported 2026-10-15

Published forecast

Oct 12, 2026, 2:36 AM PDT

Opus 5.5 High in Shortcut

Shortcut

2.31

Shortcut normalized EPS

+2.1% vs Street*

Street

2.26

Street normalized EPS

Frozen October 11 snapshot

Real

2.37

Issuer adjusted diluted EPS

Shortcut win

Shortcut off by $0.06 · Street off by $0.11.

Uses BNY’s adjusted diluted EPS of $2.37, excluding notable items ($2.34 GAAP diluted EPS). The score compares published values; exact adjustment matching remains unverified.

Issuer earnings release ↗

USD per diluted share

Explore the model.

Open the assumptions and calculations behind this earnings forecast.

BNY reviewed earnings model
Open in Shortcut ↗Download XLSX ↓

Model note: The severance add-back is worth about $0.011/share. Loan and preferred-dividend assumptions remain unresolved.

Behind the estimate.

The model forecasts $2.31 per diluted share for the quarter ended September 30, 2026.

Forecast and independent review: Opus 5.5 High in Shortcut.

Model assumptions and review notes
  • Modeled normalized EPS; comparability with the frozen Street definition remains unconfirmed. The score compares published values directly.
  • F2: consolidated average loans 86,500 (Revenue summary J96) vs segment sum 87,100; EPS +$0.0024 (to ~2.3092) if consolidated should be 87,100, $0 if a segment entry is wrong.
  • F1: whether the normalized comparator excludes routine 3Q26 severance; if not, comparable EPS = GAAP 2.2955 (-$0.0112). Both 2.3067 and 2.2955 exceed consensus 2.26.
  • F5: preferred series outstanding after the 2Q26 $583m redemption; EPS -/+ $0.00146 per +/- $1m of preferred dividends.
  • F3: buyback excise accrual (~$11m equity) unsourced; absorbed by Balance Sheet plug J12; no EPS effect.
  • consensus file internal inconsistency (EBT excl. 2,127.5 > EBT GAAP 2,125.87 while NI excl. 1,550.68 < NI GAAP 1,555.24) cannot be resolved from supplied evidence.
  • Optional review note 3 not actioned: other uncaveated small-base growth rates outside the audited list (e.g. Income Statement H94 193.3% on a $15m 1Q25 base) remain display-only arithmetic; no EPS dependency.
  • F1 comparator basis: confirm whether normalized 3Q26 consensus excludes severance. Sensitivity −$0.0112 (scored comparable EPS $2.2955 vs $2.3067).
  • F2 average loans: consolidated 86,500 vs segment sum 87,100. EPS +$0.0024 only if the consolidated figure is wrong; $0 otherwise.
  • F3 preferred dividends: series and share counts unverifiable. ∓$0.00146 EPS per ±$1m.
  • F4 treasury-stock excise (about $11m): balance-sheet only, no EPS effect.
  • Judgmental forecast inputs (ETR 22% vs ~23% guide, NIM 141.4bp, fee yields) preserved unchanged. Each 1pp ETR ≈ $21.2m ≈ $0.031 EPS (sensitivity only, not a defect).
  • Audit completion is not acceptance. The model is publishable within the six-round limit only with the F1–F3 caveats stated.

On the record.

Reporting period
Q3 2026 (quarter ended September 30, 2026), ended 2026-09-30
Reporting basis
Normalized diluted EPS per common share, USD (BNY adjusted EPS excluding notable items; matches S&P normalized history 6/6)
Published
Oct 12, 2026, 2:36 AM PDT
Model / effort
Opus 5.5 · High effort

Original forecasts, models and publication times remain on the record.

Research sources